Wednesday, October 1, 2003
Issue Contents:
| 06:01 | Good Morning... |
| 06:06 | [NYSE, Daily] Market Internals |
| 06:10 | [NASDAQ, Daily] Market Internals |
| 06:14 | [$INDU, Daily] Dow Jones Industrial Average |
| 06:21 | [$SPX, Daily] S&P 500 Index |
| 06:29 | [$NDX, Daily] NASDAQ 100 Index |
| 09:32 | [$SOX, Daily] Seminconductor Sector Index |
| 09:59 | [$HUI, Daily] AMEX Gold Bugs Index |
| 10:06 | [QQQ, Daily] NASDAQ 100 Index Tracking Shares |
| 10:12 | [SPY, Daily] S&P 500 Depositary Receipts |
| 10:34 | [SMH, Daily] Semiconductor HOLDRs |
| 10:39 | [EWJ] iShares MSCI Japan Index Fund |
| 10:42 | [IWM] iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund |
| 16:16 | 2003-10-01 Transcript for Real Time Trading Group Real time forum discussion: 2003-10-01 Transcript for Real Time Trading Group |
Paul's Watch List was posted last night, and here is the link to it.
There is a ton of data slated for release on the U.S. Economic Calendar for the rest of this week. Lots of potential catalysts for movement.
From the news, it seems like the focus now is on looking for signs of weakness returning in the economy, right across the board.
[NYSE, Daily] Market Internals
The 5-day RSI of the new $VIX hooked down under the 70 line, meaning that this is a short-term buy signal. The $VIX has also hit the upper Bollinger Band. We don't have to buy, of course, and in case we are short on a swing trade, we use this as a "crank down the stop loss to protect profits on short positions" warning bell.
[NASDAQ, Daily] Market Internals
Note quite the same as the NYSE internals, since the 5-day RSI has not even gone through the 70 line yet on the upside, while the $VXN has not hit the upper Bollinger Band. Theoretically, there is more room for fear and downside price action.
[$INDU, Daily] Dow Jones Industrial Average
$INDU DAILY: Single downswing from September 19 high. Hits second downside price target, the August 26 swing low. Has now broken the succession of higher swing lows and higher swing highs, after failing to move up on test of the 9600 level. Reversal is in place and there is a potential downtrend beginning in this timeframe.
SUPPORT BELOW: 8997, the August 6 swing low.
RESISTANCE OVERHEAD: 9380, the September 12 swing low.
RESISTANCE OVERHEAD: 9438, the 20-day EMA.
$SPX DAILY: Same analysis as the $INDU daily chart, although shy of the second downside target. Note that it's the battle for a big round number such as 1,000 and with everyone in a panic, it would be interesting to see if it can actually go up for a day or two. Then we'll know if the sellers are serious...
[$NDX, Daily] NASDAQ 100 Index
$NDX DAILY: Same comments as the $SPX. You can see that this has been the relatively stronger index, and that jives with what we saw in market internals.
RESISTANCE OVERHEAD: September 11 swing low at 1328ish.
RESISTANCE OVERHEAD: 20-day EMA at 1342ish.
SUPPORT BELOW: August 25 swing low at 1280ish.
[$SOX, Daily] Seminconductor Sector Index
$SOX DAILY: Single downswing since September 19. Hits downside targets of the low of the triangle anchored by the August 26 low, which also happens to be the 50-day moving average. We have to watch and see if buyers will show up, as longer term swing traders will also be looking to buy a pullback to the 50-day MA. We are watching to see if it can show us any evidence that buyers are going to step up to the plate.
RESISTANCE OVERHEAD: September 11 swing low. 20-day EMA just under 440.
SUPPORT BELOW: 410-425 the area between the June 6 high and the August 19 gap up day.
[$HUI, Daily] AMEX Gold Bugs Index
$HUI DAILY: Single downswing since September 25. A two-day tiny bounce after breaking the uptrend is a classic spot to set up a hit and run swing trade on the short side. This is because while it has stopped going down, it's not in a downtrend yet, with potential support points below. First downside target is a test of the September 26 low. Second downside target is a test of the 50-day MA.
RESISTANCE OVERHEAD: September 26 high is the top of a tall dark candlestick where the sellers showed up.
SUPPORT BELOW: 50-day MA in the 185 area.
[QQQ, Daily] NASDAQ 100 Index Tracking Shares
QQQ DAILY: Please see comments for $NDX. Makes a 20-day low as it hits the 50-day MA and makes a tall dark candlestick that closes on the low. Expanded trading range on the day, accompanied by volume. Would typically expect a pause day today, followed by an action day tomorrow.
[SPY, Daily] S&P 500 Depositary Receipts
SPY DAILY: Please see $SPX comments. Also a new 20-day low as it tests the 50-day MA. Huge spike of volume on the day. What we are waiting for is to see which side wins here, since it's sitting at potential support.
[SMH, Daily] Semiconductor HOLDRs
SMH DAILY: Please see $SOX for analysis. A new 20-day low as the 50-day MA is hit. Resistance overhead is marked out. We're waiting to see if buyers will show up in this potential support area.
There is the possibility of the largest "retracement" pattern, a falling wedge into the 50-day MA. We can certainly draw the lower edge of any potential wedge, while there are not enough points to draw the upper edge right now.
If we have to approximate a spot where the upper line might occur, we can use the 20-day EMA overhead since that is likely to be an area of resistance overhead where sellers will try to sell it.
[EWJ] iShares MSCI Japan Index Fund
EWJ, iShares MSCI Japan Index Fund, has been added to our watch list, effective today.
[IWM] iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund
IWM, iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund, has been added to our watch list, effective today.
2003-10-01 Transcript for Real Time Trading Group
Real time forum discussion: 2003-10-01 Transcript for Real Time Trading Group
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