Monday, October 13, 2003
Issue Contents:
| 10:46 | Lazy Day Bank holiday in the U.S., Canada and Japan. |
| 10:47 | U.S. Economic Calendar This is the U.S. Economic Calendar for this week. |
| 11:05 | Today's Swing Trade Let's go over today's setup. |
| 16:16 | 2003-10-13 Transcript for Real Time Trading Group Real time forum discussion transcript: 2003-10-13 Transcript for Real Time Trading Group |
Monday, October 13
Bond and foreign exchange markets closed in the U.S., Canada and Japan.
Tuesday, October 14
- 7:45AM BTM-USBW Store Sales
- 8:55AM Redbook
- 10:00AM Federal Reserve Governor Roger Ferguson and Gov. Ben Bernanke testify to the Senate Banking Committee on their confirmation.
- 11:00AM 4-Week Bill Announcement
- 1:00PM 3-Month Bill Auction
- 1:00PM 6-Month Bill Auction
Wednesday, October 15
Treasury Secretary John Snow meets Wall Street CEOs and economists, in New York. To speak at the Conference Board annual meeting.
- 7:00AM MBA Purchase Applications
- 8:30AM NY Empire State Index
- 8:30AM Retail Sales
- 9:00AM Bank of Canada Governing Council makes interate rate policy announcement
- 1:00PM 4-Week Bill Auction
- 2:00PM Beige Book
Thursday, October 16
- 8:30AM Consumer Price Index
- 8:30AM Jobless Claims
- 8:30AM Business Inventories
- 9:15AM Industrial Production
- 9:30AM St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President William Poole makes opening remarks at Fed conference on inflation targeting, in St. Louis, Mo
- 10:00AM Treasury Secretary John Snow testifies before the Senate Banking Committee in Washington on the department's semi-annual report on international economic and exchange rate policies due out Oct. 15
- 11:00AM 6-Month Bill Announcement
- 11:00AM 3-Month Bill Announcement
- 11:10AM San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Parry to speak about the U.S. economic outlook at the University of California in Berkeley
- 12:00NOON Philadelphia Fed Survey
- 4:30PM Money Supply
Friday, October 17
Options expiration today. President Bush visits Japan for talks with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, ahead of Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum meeting in Bangkok.
- 8:30AM Housing Starts
- 9:45AM Consumer Sentiment
We continue with the swing trade on the short side with RIMM. Last Friday, we needed to see RIMM follow through after hitting the downside on Target 1. We did not get any following through. Let's take a look at the daily chart.
You've seen me draw resistance lines at the upper end of tall black candlesticks to mark resistance. This principle also works in reverse. I have marked out support with a pink line at the base of a tall white candlestick. This is how we derived the first downside target. At the time, the October 6 low was a two-day low, but it also the base of a tall white candle where we know that buyers showed up before. And on the way down, we needed to see buyers give up and break support in the 42.32 area.
What we saw last Friday was a doji, a small trading range day with the high, low, open and close in about the same place. The lack of follow through to the downside after hitting potential support was one clue. The doji told us that there was hesitation. There were only two alternatives after hesitation at potential support. It either holds as buyers show up again to take it up to test the October 9 high, or it breaks below. In the case of RIMM, it held support as buyers showed up again. Traders who left on Friday are happy. Traders who held on are faced with expiration this coming Friday.
Considering the original plan was to look for a one or two-day swing trade upon a spike top, the welcome has been worn out on this round. We note that the conditions for a spike top are still in place and may play it again this week.
2003-10-13 Transcript for Real Time Trading Group
Real time forum discussion transcript: 2003-10-13 Transcript for Real Time Trading Group
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