Friday, November 14, 2003
Issue Contents:
| 09:07 | Good Morning Work in progress. |
| 09:10 | Paul's Watch List Stock picks for intraday and swing trades. |
| 09:13 | Daily Swing Trade Today's setups. |
| 09:25 | Economic Data Roundup A summary of today's key releases. |
| 09:42 | [$NDX, Daily] NASDAQ 100 Index Technical Update. |
| 10:11 | Interest Rate Outlook Techical update. |
| 16:16 | Active Trader Transcript Real time forum log. |
Today's U.S. Economic Calendar sees a bumper crop of economic data released between now and 9:45AM, with a number of Fed officials speaking throughout the day.
We've been hard at work overnight implementing a new look and a number of functionalities behind the scenes. Teresa has a new article for Level 3 Daily Swing Trade subscribers that will be uploaded during the day today.
This is Paul's intraday and swing trade watch list for Friday. He will review the setups for the Level 4 Active Traders at around 11AM Eastern.
BUY SCALPS:
- No symbols today.
SHORT SCALPS:
- BRCM @ 36.89
- DISH @ 32.93
- MCHP @ 33.55
- NVDA @ 21.30
- AA @ 32.38
- DIS @ 23.22
Prices above are used as ALERTS to look for intraday entries. If you need additional ideas, don't forget that we have automated Stock Scan Lists as well.
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I did not make any stock picks last night, as I have been working on an article on technique that will be uploaded later today. The following are Paul's picks for the day, usually available to Level 4 Active Trader subscribers.
This is Paul's intraday and swing trade watch list for Friday. He will review the setups for the Level 4 Active Traders at around 11AM Eastern.
BUY SCALPS:
- No symbols today.
SHORT SCALPS:
- BRCM @ 36.89
- DISH @ 32.93
- MCHP @ 33.55
- NVDA @ 21.30
- AA @ 32.38
- DIS @ 23.22
Prices above are used as ALERTS to look for intraday entries. If you need additional ideas, don't forget that we have automated Stock Scan Lists as well.
****
Producer Price Index +0.8%
Excluding Food and Energy +0.5%
Econoday reports: The October producer price index jumped 0.8 percent after climbing 0.3 percent in September. On the year, the PPI is up 3.4 percent. These numbers are far above analysts' expectations. Energy prices edged down 0.1 percent after climbing 0.1 percent in September. This put energy prices 9.2 percent higher when compared with last year. Food prices jumped 2.2 percent after climbing 1.2 percent in the prior month. Rising prices for beef and veal, light motor trucks, and passenger cars led the increase in the finished goods index.
Retail Sales -0.3%
Excluding Autos 0.2%
Econoday reports: Analysts had expected sales to be unchanged. September sales were revised downward to a decline of 0.4 percent from the fall of 0.2 percent originally reported. Retail sales were 6.1 percent above last year's levels. Excluding autos, retail sales were up 0.2 percent. When compared with last year, retail sales excluding autos were up 6.2 percent.
Industrial Production +0.2%
Capacity Utilization Rate 74.7%
Econoday reports: Manufacturing output inched up 0.1 percent after climbing 0.7 percent in the previous month. Durable production was unchanged after jumping 1.5 percent in the previous month. The data were dragged down by a 3.8 percent decline in motor vehicles and parts. Capacity utilization for total industry climbed to 75 percent from 74.9 in the previous month. Capacity continues to be plentiful so companies have little reason to invest in new equipment and upgrade plants.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 93.5
CHICAGO (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence surged more than expected in November, market sources said on Friday, boosted by recent job growth and a stronger stock market.
The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment for November raced to 93.5 in a preliminary reading, well above economists' median forecast of 91.0 and a final reading in October of 89.6.
The survey's current conditions index jumped to 102.8 from 99.9 in October.
[$NDX, Daily] NASDAQ 100 Index
$NDX Daily: Almost all the major indices look the same as the NASDAQ 100. We had the big up day on Wednesday, coming in to test the November 7 swing high. Yesterday was a small range day, and today, IF it is really going to move, THEN usually this is the time and place.
$NDX Daily: If we squeeze the bars in together, you can see that the 20-day average true range is now the smallest it has been in months, basically confirming our observations that the daily trading range has contracted to such a miniscule amount that there has to be a big congestion pattern here. And it's a rising wedge that targets a test of the November 7 high and the area right above it in the $NDX 1465 area. IF and when it gets there, we'll have to watch for the signs that will differentiate the rising wedge (reversal pattern) from the Elliott Wave 4 diagonal triangle, which sets up the Mother of All Short Squeezes -- straight up.
While we often update the Treasury futures for Level 3 and 4 subscribers, for Level 2, we tend to look at the weekly and monthly charts to get clues into the big picture.
December 10 Year Treasury Note Futures Daily: You can see here that after the big break from the highs of the bond market, the trading range has been contracting for a number of months. Whenever you find a couple moving averages such as the 20-day EMA and the 50-day MA in the same spot, you know that it's completely sideways.
Last week, the TY breached the lower edge of the triangular pattern, but on the bounce back under the tangled moving averages did not produce sellers, and with the extra small quarterly Treasury refunding out of the way, and Fed officially giving extra face time to to pound in the "there will not be higher rates in ages" message, we've seen a virtual short-squeeze back to the upper edge of the triangle.
December 30 Year Treasury Bond Futures Daily: Exactly the same story.
DOLLAR, GOLD and LONG BOND YIELD, Weekly: Of course, with the strong economic numbers coming out on a daily basis, it is probably a matter of time before the bond market itself starts to back and fill, driving rates up, particularly if the Dollar continues downward. In the big picture, we've still got a firm bottom in on long-term rates and it's simply just hanging there sideways for now, but they're not moving down in any meaningful way.
Real time forum log.
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