Monday, November 3, 2003
Issue Contents:
| 08:56 | Paul's Watch List Stock picks for intraday and swing trades. |
| 09:14 | Daily Swing Trade This is our swing trade setup of the day. |
| 10:11 | U.S. Economic Calendar Calendar for the week of November 3 to 7. |
| 12:42 | October ISM Index at 57.0 Highest reading since January 2000. |
| 12:44 | Construction Spending +1.3% A record high in September. |
| 13:07 | [NYSE, Daily] Market Internals A look at $VIX and NYSE statistics. |
| 14:15 | [$SOX, Daily] Semiconductor Sector Technical update. |
| 16:16 | 2003-11-03 Transcript for Real Time Trading Group Real time forum discussion transcript: 2003-11-03 Transcript for Real Time Trading Group |
This is Paul's intraday and swing trade watch list for Monday. He will review the setups for the Real-Time Trading Group at around 11AM Eastern.
BUY SCALPS:
- BBBY @ 43.38
- INTC @ 33.14
- LLTC @ 43.74
- MO @ 46.71
SHORT SCALPS:
- No symbols today.
Prices above are used as ALERTS to look for intraday entries. If you need additional ideas, don't forget that we have automated Stock Scan Lists as well.
****
Let's update Friday's work.
AMZN Daily: We wanted to see last Wednesday's low hit in order to take this trade home over the weekend. This trade has now fulfilled our "two bars" rule of thumb, the place where we usually look to see 1. if the first target has been hit and 2. if we want to exit. Since AMZN is NOT in a downtrend yet we've done what we came here to do, and we can go out the exit door here if we like.
AMZN Intraday: If we take a look at the 15-minute intraday chart, we see that the ADX has reached an extreme zone for this symbol and timeframe, and those looking to exit can now drop down to this smaller timeframe to do so. The stock is up a bit in pre-market trading last at $54.85 as we write. We will likely use the first test of Friday's low to take profits.
INTC Daily: This short sale setup was triggered on Friday. IF the premise was a failure on test of top, THEN the price action that will accompany that would be to trade back under the October 15 swing high. What we had instead was a small range "doji" day where it rested instead of reverse since it did not close under $32.78, we would not have taken this home over the weekend. Instead, we would try again today, with a sell stop under $32.78 should it come back again. If you are already short, your option is to move the stop loss down to last Friday's high or keep your initial stop loss and see if a bounce in the morning fails. It will not make a big difference.
INTC Intraday: The 15-minute chart shows a potential head and shoulders top, but as you've seen us write many times before, we also envision the glass half full and the glass half empty. The other side is that it might be a triangle, a fake descending triangle that traps and then launches upward. This morning, we will see it test the upside, and if you are short, you will be watching to see if it's a fake poke or not.
ERTS Daily: This short sale setups was triggered on Friday. You saw the MSFT example last Friday, the ideal "stealth bear flag". In this case, IF the premise is that it's also a stealth bear flag, THEN it should be going straight down from here, and therefore, the stop loss can be moved down to last Friday's high of $100.25. In pre-market trading, ERTS was last at $96.75 as we write, so things are looking up, so to speak.
So my personal plan today is to set up a graceful exit on AMZN, manage INTC and see if ERTS can speed up it's descent to the downside target. Now that our workflow has returned to normal, I will be working during the day to find candidates for tomorrow, and write them up the night before...cheers!
Monday, November 3
Earnings Highlights: MET, PFG, K, AKR, DNR, FIC
- 8:15AM Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Michael Moskow speaks about the geography of auto production, in Detroit, Michigan.
- 10:00AM Construction Spending
- 10:00AM ISM Manufacturing Index
- 1:00PM 3-Month Treasury Bill Auction
- 1:00PM 6-Month Treasury Bill Auction
- 1:15PM Treasury Secretary John Snow speaks to U.S.-Japan Business Council annual meeting in Washington.
- 4:00PM Motor Vehicle Sales
Tuesday, November 4
Earnings Highlights: EOP, TYC, CCU, G, EMR, MAS
| U.S. President George W. Bush hosts Sri Lankan Prime Minister Wickremesinghe at the White House. |
- 7:45AM BTM-UBSW Store Sales
- 8:55AM Redbook
- 10:00AM Challenger Job-Cut Report
- 10:00AM Rep. Richard Baker's Financial Services Capital Markets Subcommittee holds first of two days of hearings on mutual fund trading practices with NY Attorney General Eliot Spitzer and SEC Enforcement Director Stephen Cutler. Second hearings is same time Nov. 6.
- 1:00PM 4-Week Treasury Bill Auction
Wednesday, November 5
Earnings Highlights: CSCO, CPN, WPI. TXU, UNM, QCOM
U.S. President George W. Bush hosts Congolese President Joseph Kabila at the White House.
- 7:00AM MBA Purchase Applications
- 8:00AM Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Sandra Pianalto speaks on the subject of financial education in Cleveland.
- 10:00AM ISM Non-manufacturing Index
- 10:00AM Factory Orders
- 10:00AM Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan testifies before the Senate Banking Committee on the condition of the banking industry.
- 12:30PM Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Sandra Pianalto speaks on the subject of the "Federal Reserve" in Cleveland before the Ohio Turnaround Management Association.
- 5:00PM Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anthony Santomero delivers a speech entitled, "Great Expectations: Beliefs, Economics, and Monetary Policy" at the University of Pennsylvania, in Philadelphia.
- 6:00PM Federal Reserve Governor Susan Schmidt Bies delivers welcoming remarks to a dinner of state bank supervisors.
Thursday, November 6
Earnings Highlights: NVDA, DVN, KSE, BDX, WMB, CLX
- 7:00AM Bank of England Interest Rate Announcement - An interest rate hike IS expected.
- 7:45 ECB Interest Rate Announcement
- 8:30AM Jobless Claims
- 8:30AM Productivity and Costs
- 10:00AM Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan delivers a speech via satellite to the Securities Industry Association annual meeting in Boca Raton, Florida.
11:00AM Chain Store Sales - 12:45PM Federal Reserve Governor Ben Bernanke delivers a speech on the jobless recovery to a conference on the global economic recovery at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh.
- 3:00PM Treasury STRIPS
- 4:30PM Money Supply
- 7:00PM Treasury Secretary John Snow speaks to the Economic Club of Washington.
- 7:45PM Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Jack Guynn delivers a dinner speech on the U.S. economic outlook to the Baton Rouge, La. Chamber of Commerce.
Friday, November 7
Earnings Highlights: DTE, BIOI, GENE, APPA, ALPHA.AT, ACR
U.S. President George W. Bush hosts NATO Secretary General Lord Robertson for a meeting and working luncheon at the White House, in the NATO chief's final official visit to the United States. Topics include security and relations with Europe.- 8:30 Employment Situation
- 10:00AM Wholesale Trade
- 3:00PM Consumer Credit
From Econoday.com: Dallas Federal Reserve to hold sovereign debt conference in Dallas, Texas. Panelists to include Treasury Under Secretary for International Affairs John Taylor, Bank of Mexico Governor Guillermo Ortiz, Brazilian Central Bank President Henrique Meirelles and Dallas Fed President Robert McTeer.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturers cranked up output in October to its highest level in more than 3-1/2 years and slowed the pace of layoffs, according to a report on Monday.
The Institute for Supply Management said its October purchasing managers' index jumped to 57.0 -- the highest since January 2000 -- from 53.7 in September, beatings forecasts for a rise to 56.0. Any reading above 50 in the index points to growth in the sector that makes up less than a fifth of the overall economy.
The report was the latest underscoring the economy's rapid acceleration in the past few months as tax cuts and better business confidence fueled third-quarter growth that was the fastest in two decades.
While that growth rate is expected to slow, most economists expect continued solid growth to spur hiring. The employment index showing a slowing pace of layoffs, rising to 47.7 from 45.7.
A breakdown of the survey's components revealed that the hearty manufacturing expansion was likely to persist. New orders, the key source of future activity, rose to 64.3 from 60.4.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. construction spending surged unexpectedly in September to a record high as outlays for both residential and nonresidential building posted gains, a government report showed on Monday.
Overall construction spending climbed 1.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted $910.63 billion in September, from $898.83 billion in August, the Commerce Department said. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a 0.3 percent increase.
The August increase was revised upward to 0.7 percent from 0.2 percent.
Private residential construction spending rose 1.4 percent to $471.45 billion from $464.96 billion, the highest level on record, as mortgage interest rates near historically low levels attracted homebuyers.
Private non-residential construction spending rose 2.5 percent, the biggest jump in nearly a year, to $219.17 billion from $213.91 billion in the previous month.
Overall public construction and state and local construction spending hit record highs.
[NYSE, Daily] Market Internals
We will be reviewing the major market indices as we have arrived at an important juncture -- yet another test of top. The news can't possibly get any better, but as usual, it only comes out after a multi-month advance. It's a textbook case of the Justin Mamis sentiment cycle.
$VIX & NYSE NEW HIGHS Daily: Well, this is the part where they start screaming "It's a breakout!" -- again. The S&P is above the October 15 swing high and it needs to stay above $SPX 1053 to keep the upside intact. We note that this latest push down in the $VIX reading is near the bottom of the Bollinger Band, while the 5-day RSI is now below the 30 line. The bottom line is that IF the $SPX trades back under the October 15 high, it will trigger selling.
[$SOX, Daily] Semiconductor Sector
When we last checked in on the $SOX daily chart, we showed you the rising wedge pattern; however, it was important to discern between the wedge and a potential Elliot Wave diagonal triangle, since that would imply that there would be one last leg up.
$SOX Daily: Last Friday was a tiny down day, but it did not go back under the upper edge of the pattern. Buyers are back on the little dip, so we'll see if this is the big launch into a buying climax.
2003-11-03 Transcript for Real Time Trading Group
Real time forum discussion transcript: 2003-11-03 Transcript for Real Time Trading Group
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