Tuesday, December 2, 2003
Issue Contents:
| 10:32 | Good Morning Headlines and reaction. |
| 12:30 | Economic Data Roundup Summary of today's key releases. |
| 14:06 | Daily Swing Trade Today's setups. |
Wouldn't you know it. After the close last Friday, I tuned into CNBC and in less time than it takes to scream "It's a breakout!", Ron Insana uttered those impossible words:
S-A-N-T-A
C-L-A-U-S
R-A-L-L-Y
Yes, that's right! When the market was really moving back in late spring, I remember discussing the sentiment cycle with the Active Trader group as the market was climbing the wall of worry, not sure if the early numbers pointing to an "economic recovery" was real or not. There was total disbelief in the market's ability to move up and sustain higher prices. At the time, I said that there would be no way any one would even dare hold out hope for a "summer rally", let alone extended upward price action. Back then, as Justin Mamis would say, the price risk was lower than the information risk. Stocks are mostly cheap when the outlook is bad and/or uncertain.
And now we have it. It's official. At the end of a year-long rally, with prices near two-year highs, the financial commentators are reporting with confidence that Santa is sure to have a sack full of cash instead of lumps of coal. Yesterday, Maria was reporting excellent fundamental economic news, "surging" numbers in fact, with a smile.
We have come full circle. Confidence has returned. Things are looking really good, but the price to be paid for all this good news is high too, in the form of high prices. At this point, we can be sure that price risk is much higher than information risk.
It's that old conundrum. Do we want to pay wholesale, or retail?
BTM Chain Store Sales -0.1%
Econoday reports: In a lukewarm indication of holiday demand, the BTM-UBSW retail chain-store index slipped 0.1 percent in the week ended November 29 compared to the prior week. Thanks to weak comparisons, the index was up a more healthy 5.2 percent year-on-year. BTM said sales on Friday and Saturday, the first two shopping days of the season, were good but not great.
Please note that this statistic will be discontinued after December 9. The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi announced that Senior Economist Michael Niemira, who developed the index, has resigned to pursue other interests.
Redbook -2.8%
Econoday reports: The Redbook reported a 2.8 percent decline in sales at the nation's discount and department stores in November compared with October. But store sales in the week ended November 29, an important reading on the kickoff to the holiday shopping season, were up a solid 4.4 percent year-on-year. November-to-November sales were up 4.1 percent.
Bank of Canada Benchmark Unchanged at 2.75%
Econoday reports: The Bank of Canada, as expected, left its key interest rate at 2.75 percent. The Bank had reduced interest rates by 25 basis points in both July and September. The core inflation rate continues to be below the 2 percent inflation target, although it was up in September and October. There are indications the Canadian economy is improving despite the body blows it suffered from the SARS epidemic, forest fires and August's power blackout in parts of Canada (as well as the Northeast U.S.). The surge in the Canadian dollar against its U.S. counterpart, which has been fuelled in part by the wide interest rate differential between the two countries, has affected exporters.
Challenger Job-Cut Report -99,452 Workers
Econoday reports: U.S. companies said in November they would cut 99,452 workers, down from 157,508 in November 2002 and from 171,874 in October. Telecoms, second to government/non-profit in year-to-date job losses, were hit with the largest number of layoffs in the month. In total, though, the report is a positive for the economic outlook, offering a cautious hint that a job recovery may in fact be underway.
4-Week Treasury Bill Rate 0.935%
Econoday reports: The Treasury auctioned $20 billion of 4-week bills at an award rate of 0.935 percent, 1/2 basis point below week's $23 billion auction. The bid-to-cover ratio was a solid 2.30 vs. 2.63 last week.
Light Truck Sales 7.9Million Units
Auto Sales 5.7 Million
Econoday reports: Motor vehicle sales were strong in November, well above expectations at a 13.5 million annual rate. Cars sold at a 5.6 million rate in the month, well above October's weak 5.1 million rate and matching last year's rate. Light trucks sold at a 7.9 million rate, above last month's 7.5 million rate and last November's 7.1 million rate. GM, pushing the most incentives, did the best of the Big Three in the month.
There were no picks today, because in the bigger picture, what we have is a test of top on both the daily and weekly charts. Yesterday's big up day was nice to have, but given that it's such a big test in two bigger timeframes, we can't expect much follow through on the upside as a rule. If anything, we may be able to position for a failure on a test of top.