TrendVue :: Archive

Friday, December 5, 2003
Issue Contents:

09:36	Good Morning TGIF!
09:54	Bond Bruhaha A snake in the pit.
09:56	Paul's Watch List Stock picks for intraday and swing trades.
10:18	Daily Swing Trade Today's stock setups.
11:16	Active Trader Transcript Real time forum log.
11:16	Active Trader Transcript Real time forum log.
11:16	Active Trader Transcript Real time forum log.
11:16	Active Trader Transcript Real time forum log.
11:16	Active Trader Transcript Real time forum log.
17:45	Active Trader Transcript Real time forum log.

Good Morning

Oh no! Missed the opening bell this morning!

Next week, I will try to write the newsletter the night before, since the dark winter nights on the West Coast are sneaking up on me.

^ 03.12.05 09:36 #

Bond Bruhaha

Ah, that dreadful non-farm payroll number rears it's ugly head again. The headline this morning at WSJ is:

The jobless rate fell to an eight-month low of 5.9% in November. But employers added only 57,000 jobs, about two-thirds fewer than economists had expected.

Remember in Newtonian physics where we have to draw vectors to represent force? When it comes to the market, we can apply this sort of visualization as well. In fundamental analysis, this happens over and over. Once good earnings or economic data (remember earnings momentum theory?) have been coming out for a while, and the market has going up for a long time, the public comes to expect things to continue and the analysts will just project and extrapolate the "trend" into the future ad infinitum.

Invariably comes a day where the number will be a "shocker", as if the car was travelling too fast into a "dead man's curve" and it careens over the edge into a ravine. That's exactly what happened today with the jobless numbers. And then they all pretend to be shocked.

I find this to be annoying because they never seem to clue in. Now we have to listen to days or weeks of the "jobless recovery" while the market continues to chop sideways. You know, most countries in the world would love to have a problem such as a 5.9% employment rate. But we are not thankful for such things.

^ 03.12.05 09:54 #

Paul's Watch List

This is Paul's intraday and swing trade watch list for Friday. He will review the setups for Level 4 Active Traders at around 11AM Eastern.

BUY SCALPS:

COST @ 36.39
NXTL @ 25.71

SHORT SCALPS:

DIS @ 21.80
ERTS @ 41.63

Prices above are used as ALERTS to look for intraday entries. If you need additional ideas, don't forget that we have automated Stock Scan Lists as well.

****

^ 03.12.05 09:56 #

Daily Swing Trade

A subscriber wrote this morning regarding using in-the-money options to take swing trades overnight. I will write an article over the weekend and put it in the knowledge base.

Let's update our picks from yesterday.

MAXIM: Originally, we played MXIM for a breakout, and when we didn't it became a candidate to move to the other edge of the pattern. While it's been interesting, scalping a stock trading in an ever-narrower range is not the mission here, so we'll drop it for now.

NEWMONT MINING: After a five-day crazy upswing, stalking a quick hit and run short sale on a swing basis was a no-brainer set up on the December 3 doji/small range day. We planned for it to be a one or two day hit and run trade, mainly because any move down would be considered a pullback in an uptrend, and we do not want to be in the way of buyers if they come out for another push up.

At this point, those of you who want to make a high-risk BUY on NEM could use yesterday's high as the alert trigger to enter a swing trade on the long side, with the initial upside target of $50.28, the December 2 swing high. The setup here is a bull flag, bar two in a directional uptrend.

NEWMONT MINING: Intraday on the 15-minute chart, we saw NEM just collapse. Between the alert trigger price and yesterday's low, NEM was down over a buck, and I just took the easy money. Was just too tempting.