Friday, August 8, 2003
Issue Contents:
...nothing on deck on the U.S. Economic Calendar today. Treasury bond and note futures open up above yesterday's high, but it's been a pretty big bounce already.
On the stock front, a quick glance at the usual websites produce quotes such as:
"The market is unstable and fluttery intraday and I would expect a surge of buying in the morning tomorrow as shorts cover their positions for the weekend, then a drift to the close."
"Perhaps Temporarily Washed Out To The Downside, The Averages Could Stabilize And Attempt A Snap Back Over The Next Few Sessions"
That's pretty complacent, wouldn't you say?
These are Paul's intraday stock picks for Friday. He will reveiw each setup for the Real-Time Trading Group at around 11AM Eastern.
- COST @ 29.57
- EBAY @ 101.10
- GILD @ 61.32
- DNA @ 74.89
- CHKP @ 16.38
- HPQ @ 19.15
Prices above should be used as ALERTS.
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[USU3, Daily] September Treasury Bond Futures
USU3 opens gap up. From the daily chart perspective, this gap up is coming at the end of the bounce, on an upswing, so it might be a ga(s)p.
The trading strategy for aggressive traders is to hike up the sell stops to a tick UNDER yesterday's high, in case of price reversal, to get a head start. This is also a valid intraday trading strategy to grab a few bars. The theory here is that IF it is a gap that indicates strength, THEN it should not come back to fill it on the downside, since sinking below yesterday's high will bring in technical sellers who assume that it has failed a small test.
[TYU3, Daily] September Treasury Note Futures
Same analysis and strategy as the USU3:
"...opens gap up. From the daily chart perspective, this gap up is coming at the end of the bounce, on an upswing, so it might be a ga(s)p.
The trading strategy for aggressive traders is to hike up the sell stops to a tick UNDER yesterday's high, in case of price reversal, to get a head start. This is also a valid intraday trading strategy to grab a few bars. The theory here is that IF it is a gap that indicates strength, THEN it should not come back to fill it on the downside, since sinking below yesterday's high will bring in technical sellers who assume that it has failed a small test."
Well, the aggressive traders have had their turn, and now with the one-day bounce, the rest of us can get in there and stalk a quick hit and run short sale in case it is getting ready to get to the second downside target, which is a test of the base of the rising wedge in the $120 area.
Alert to enter short swing trade goes off on break of yesterday's low. As usual, you can enter at any price under yesterday's low a few minutes after the alert goes off, OR hunt for an intraday entry off the 10- or 15-minute chart. IF we go in today, THEN we would like to see it close below Wednesday's low as price confirmation in order to take the trade home over the weekend.
Note that Paul's intraday pick of Genetech [DNA] is the same setup.
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[SPY, Daily] SPDR Depositary Receipts
It's easy to see why a lot of traders will assume that this is a test of the lower end of the trading range for the S&P 500 Index, the S&P 500 Index futures, but let's take a look at the daily SPY chart.
Yes, in fact, this is the lower edge of the potential change of trend zone. The way we look at it, once we have the trading range pegged, we look for patterns inside and outline them too.
This is potentially a triangular congestion area that sucks in all the buyers because they assume that a triangle in an uptrend is a consolidation pattern. IF the triangle has broken, THEN this will be the first bounce to new resistance overhead in the form of the broken lower edge of the pattern, the 20-day EMA and the 50-day MA. This is what we call "multiple points of resistance". IF the bounce is weak, THEN we can expect sellers to materialize. A look at volume over the past two sessions shows that it has contracted for two days in a row, making yesterday's tiny up day look weak, so IF it can't decisively push off the July 1 low, THEN there is going to be trouble.
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[SPY, Daily] SPDR Depositary Receipts
The alert to look for short sales on the SPY daily chart is a break of yesterday's low, using the same method outlined for BBH. We will update if the alert goes off intraday.
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Let's take a quick look at the 15-minute $NDX chart.
We see that it's testing a two-day low here, a point where we have seen U-turns made many times over the past few weeks. Obviously, the surprise would be if it can't do it this time...
I just received an email with a forged address from my own website. If you get this, DO NOT CLICK on the file that is attached to the message. It contains the Mimail Virus.
Attachment: message.zip
From: admin@trendVUE.com
Subject line: your account
Message:
Hello there,
I would like to inform you about important information regarding your email address. This email address will be expiring.Please read attachment for details.---
Best regards, Administrator
trdtoxao
Another day, another virus, but they are getting more and more sneaky. Almost every last malicious thing that has showed up in my email has been a ZIP file, i.e., and file ending with .zip.
The first time it happened, I was surprised to see that my anti-virus software did not flag it, even though I have the controls set at high. Even used "advanced setup" to ensure that ALL FILES are scanned. Imagine the shock I got when I found out that the "include compressed files" was UNchecked! What? Aren't compressed files still files?
While I was at it, I noticed that there is a new malicious piece of adware/downloader out there called Checkin. Here's the scoop.
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Real-Time Trading Group Transcript
This is the U.S. Economic Calendar for the week of August 11 to 15, 2003. For more information, check out the Econoday calendar.
Monday, August 11
- 11:00AM 4-Week Bill Announcement
- 01:00PM 3-Month Bill Auction
- 01:00PM 6-Month Bill Auction
Tuesday, August 12
- 07:45AM BTM-UBSW Store Sales
- 08:55AM Redbook
- 09:00AM FOMC Meeting Begins
- 01:00PM 4-Week Bill Auction
- 02:15PM (approx.) FOMC Announcement
Wednesday, August 13
- 07:00AM MBA Purchase Applications
- 08:30AM Retail Sales
- 08:30AM Import and Export Prices
- 10:00AM Business Inventories
Thursday, August 14
- 08:30AM Jobless Claims
- 08:30AM Producer Price Index
- 08:30AM International Trade
- 11:00AM 3-Month Bill Announcement
- 11:00AM 6-Month Bill Announcement
- 02:00PM FOMC Minutes
- 04:30PM Money Supply
Friday, August 15 - "Double Witching"
- 08:00AM NY Empire State Index
- 08:30AM Consumer Price Index
- 09:15AM Industrial Production
- 09:45AM Consumer Sentiment
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