Thursday, September 4, 2003
Issue Contents:
| 08:26 | Good Morning... |
| 08:32 | New Real-Time Chat Format |
| 08:47 | Paul's Watch List This is Paul's intraday and swing trade watch list for Wednesday. |
| 08:56 | Headlines... |
| 09:25 | [Market Internals, Weekly] NASDAQ |
| 09:27 | [Market Internals, Weekly] NYSE |
| 09:28 | [$SOX, Daily] Semiconductor Index |
| 09:34 | [TYZ3, Daily] Ten-Year Treasury Note Futures |
| 09:37 | [$NDX, Daily] NASDAQ 100 Index |
| 09:48 | [$NDX, Daily] NASDAQ 100 Index |
| 09:49 | [$INDU, Daily] Dow Jones Industrial Index |
| 09:52 | [$SPX, Daily] S&P 500 Index |
| 17:48 | 2003.09.03 Real-Time Trading Group Transcript This is the text transcript from the Real-Time Trading Group for Wednesday, September 3, 2003. |
| 17:58 | 2003.09.04 Real-Time Trading Group Transcript This is the text transcript from the Real-Time Trading Group for Thursday, September 4, 2003. |
We are pleased to introduce the new format, and will be officially switching over to it on Monday, September 8, 2003 for the Real-Time Trading Group and the Private Trade Desk.
The new format makes life easier all around. It is:
- Accessible from a web browser from any location: No more third party software to install. No more annoying pop up ads.
- Mac, PC, UNIX friendly: Works on any computer that can run Java.
- One Log On: To access the room, simply log on to TrendVue.com
Instructions
If you are a subscriber to the Real-Time Trading Group, please log on to TrendVue.com with your Member ID and password. If you are already logged on, please reload the page. On the right hand side, there is a new link called Real Time Forums within the Inside TrendVue section. Simply click and follow the instructions to Launch Forums!
- ABX @ 20.35
- NTAP @ 22.60
- MXIM - Intraday setup
- TXN - Intraday setup
****
The top stories at WSJ.com are:
- Wal-Mart's Same-Store Sales rose 6.9% in August, beating both the company's and analysts' expectations. Sears posted strong sales that beat expectations, as department stores overall showed surprising strength.
- Jobless claims jumped a surprisingly sharp 15,000 last week to the highest level since mid-July. Second-quarter productivity was revised higher to a 6.8% from the 5.7% first estimated, thanks higher figures for economic growth.
- A hedge-fund manager arranged with mutual-fund firms to improperly trade fund shares, reaping millions of dollars in profits at the expense of other investors, New York Attorney General Spitzer alleged. Canary's Edward Stern agreed to pay $40 million to settle charges. Spitzer said action against the fund firms is "almost certain."
Reaction:
- More people are looking for bargains. No surprise.
- Weak jobless numbers are not a surprise. People are working harder than ever to keep a job. Productivity is up, and more people can be cut. In the old days, this used to be called "belt-tightening". Remember the 1980s?
- If it's too good to be true, then it probably is. And as we all know, consistent performance in trading is not easy, even for the pros.
[Market Internals, Weekly] NASDAQ
New NASDAQ highs reaching a level not seen since 1998.
It could be that there is so much power behind this move, OR that we are reaching an area where previous moves have stopped. As usual, will watch price itself and how it behaves at support and resistance levels to determine our course of action. Suggest that long-term investors who are still in the market to double check the location of stop loss orders.
[Market Internals, Weekly] NYSE
Same story at the NYSE when it comes to new 52-week highs. Note that this is making a lower high, but given the number of bond funds listed on the NYSE, it's a marvel, isn't it?
Again, long-term investors should know where their stop losses are...
[$SOX, Daily] Semiconductor Index
This is a big failure. In the Technical Trader's Handbook, this is what we can an M Test of Top, the Trader Vic 2B type. Fake breakout on Tuesday, and failure on test of the August 22 swing high.
[TYZ3, Daily] Ten-Year Treasury Note Futures
Bonds and notes continue the triangular congestion. We don't play potential breakouts, so we'll leave it. Obviously the surprise would be a move UP.
[$NDX, Daily] NASDAQ 100 Index
The two-day Japanese candlestick pattern formed here between Tuesday and Wednesday's price action is a relative of the bearish Belt Hold, bearish Meeting Line and Dark Cloud cover pattern.
In Western terms, it might be called a "key reversal" day. We will be looking for confirmation. On a swing trade basis, a break of yesterday's low will be the first sign. The first downside target is a test of the August 22 swing high. This would be a one or two-day scalp on the short side.
[$NDX, Daily] NASDAQ 100 Index
When it comes to the inner game of trading, whenever you find yourself wondering "why aren't I long?" (or worse, your WIFE asks the question!) after a multi-month advance, it may simply be a case of non-buyer's remorse. It is important to take note when this happens because it is a sign of the inner lemming calling out, luring you to buy high. At least that's what all the clients at the old brokerage office always did.
Have the courage to resist. Say to yourself, "I passed it up when it was really cheap, when it was the right time to buy. I am not gonna get suckered - again. There will be another spot for me."
Another perspective of the potential rising wedge here...and so this is obviously a very important test.
[$INDU, Daily] Dow Jones Industrial Index
Same story here...all sorts of sell setups, and it needs to be able to show us that the August 22 swing high can become support on any pullback.
Same with the daily $SPX chart.
We'll see if the upper pink line in the $SPX 1015ish area can hold on pullback. In the meantime, a break of yesterday's low will get all the swing traders short, with the first downside target at $SPX 1015.
2003.09.03 Real-Time Trading Group Transcript
This is the text transcript from the Real-Time Trading Group for Wednesday, September 3, 2003.
Click on the title above to expand this document.
2003.09.04 Real-Time Trading Group Transcript
This is the text transcript from the Real-Time Trading Group for Thursday, September 4, 2003.
Click on the title above to expand this document.