Friday, October 1, 2004
Issue Contents:
| 09:12 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news. |
| 09:26 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Friday October 1 |
| 10:36 | Quick Take: Nasdaq Nasdaq Index |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
| 16:18 | Market Statistics Friday October 1 closing data. |
| 16:19 | Swing Scanner Results Friday October 1 closing data. |
Good morning, on this the first day of October and the 275th day of 2004. Asian and European indexes closed or are trading relatively strongly, and before the open futures are up over yesterday’s close, putting stock indexes back at the test of the upper most trading range. The next couple of days are going to be interesting indeed as this critical juncture passes, or fails.
US Market Calendar
- 9:45 am: Consumer Sentiment
- 10:00 am: Construction Spending
- 10:00 am: ISM Mfg Index
- 4:00 pm: Motor Vehicle Sales
- 4:50 pm (ET) : Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Gary Stern speaks at bank insolvencies conference in Chicago
- 7:30 pm (ET) : New York Federal Reserve Bank President Timothy Geithner speaks at a Chicago Fed systemic risk conference
Canadian Market Calendar
- None scheduled.
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
Featured setups from Thursday September 30 closing data symbol scan
Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups | Special Situations
Notes for the Day
With futures up pre-open, we need to be en guard for the “gap and crap”. If a new leg of the upswing is upon us, we also have to keep our minds clear and ready to accept that as well. If stopped into longs demand that they close strongly today or bail.
At the knife edge its always like this… we’ll talk much more about this and other setups in Trader Talk today.
Long Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
DRI has been moving strongly and paused yesterday – since a recent gap is present we want to be cautious and move stops up intraday and hold only if it closes strongly. Buy trigger 23.47.
NWS fills the gap, rises, and pauses. Buy stop 33.01.
FCEL – alternative energy company, popular as of late, offers a down bar to try to gain entry to a new leg up. Buy stop 10.61.
Short Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, place a sell alert at or just below the low of the setup bar, and look for the first failed intraday bounce after the low has been broken. What we are looking for is price to push down, bounce a little, and fail again – this is where we want to get short.
Test of Top – Reversal
BAC – may just be completing a complex retracement before moving higher, but at the test of range low this is a good spot to lurk with a short alert set at 43.13.
Special Situations
REV – long, in this section because it not a clean reversal off a bottom.
DIA – the DOW 30 ETF – here in this section because it isn’t a test of bottom nor a pause in an trend—this is a tricky entry spot here fading the dominant direction. Since Dow is likely to gap open, trade using intraday entry techniques, using the first retracement and tight stops.
Nasdaq index futures hit the upper end of the range. If the test passes we can expect a vigorous attempt to get a new up-leg going in markets.
Today's transcript.
Click on the title above to expand this document.
Statistics for Friday October 1
Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 694 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 86 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 8.06 : 1 |
| Advancers | 86% |
| Decliners | 13% |
| Unchanged | 1% |
| Close > 20EMA | 85% |
| Close > 50SMA | 77% |
| Close > 200SMA | 50% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 32% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 26% |
Friday October 1 closing data.
Click on the title above to expand this document.