Monday, October 11, 2004
Issue Contents:
| 09:04 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news. |
| 09:26 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Monday October 11th. |
| 13:40 | Quick Take: Crude All crude, all the time. |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
| 19:19 | Market Statistics TrendVue Swing Ratio for Monday October 11th. |
| 19:25 | Swing Scanner Results Closing data for Monday October 11th. |
Good morning, on this the 285th day of 2004 – Columbus Day in the United States, Thanksgiving Day in Canada.
Devoid of economic news, with bond traders off today, we can probably expect a listless market which focuses on oil and corporate announcements.
In overnight “Access” trading the November crude contract is trading at new record high levels, again, currently at 53.57/bbl.
US Market Calendar
- Reminder: Bond pits are closed in observance of Columbus Day
- No economic news releases scheduled
Canadian Market Calendar
- No economic news releases scheduled
- Markets are closed in Canada in observance of Thanksgiving Day holiday.
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
Featured setups from Friday October 8 closing data symbol scan
Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups
Notes for the Day
Lets continue to keep in mind that companies are reporting their quarterly financials; some of the chart picks are at or near 52 week highs. No room for error!
Long Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
EMC – clearly trending strongly, one of these days it will try to resume.
SPG – inside day pause here at a recent gap – the chart suggests some strength so its possible SPG may try to move up to the recent high here or soon.
DVN – like many energy stocks trading at or near 52 week highs, the question here is can they keep on going. With tight stops, its probably worth trying to find out.
LPX another energy name.
BCC ledge in a strong up trend. Demand that price close strongly in your favour if stopped in.
RRI same handling comment as BCC.
Test of Top – Continuation
QCOM
Short Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, place a sell alert at or just below the low of the setup bar, and look for the first failed intraday bounce after the low has been broken. What we are looking for is price to push down, bounce a little, and fail again – this is where we want to get short.
Test of Bottom – Continuation
IACI – sell short alert 20.90
AIG sell short alert 66.72
I’m just waiting for the Crude Oil channel to be available on cable TV. Still, unlike gold or semiconductors or Starbucks coffee, oil (energy) really does rule our world. Its outsized importance suggests, to me at least, that reactions to oil / energy related news can remain outsized for an extended period of time.
Intraday crude just made a new record high at 53.80 and found intraday support at 53/bbl. Perhaps the price target of $55/bbl mentioned in the October 7th installment of The Day Ahead is not so far away after all.
Crude – daily
A chart like this stock traders would die for. The only downside to such a chart is that when price goes parabolically up, we know that the eventual break will be steep and fast. With an ADX of 41 on the daily chart, we normally expect a stock or commodity to be closer to the end of the current move than to the start.
That doesn’t mean its time to load up on crude shorts, but it is certainly a good idea to be cautious with new oil industry long positions as we can expect they will over-react for a period of time whenever oil finally does break.
Today's transcript.
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Statistics for Monday October 11
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 180 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 599 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 0.30 : 1 |
| Advancers | 54% |
| Decliners | 45% |
| Unchanged | 1% |
| Close > 20EMA | 54% |
| Close > 50SMA | 69% |
| Close > 200SMA | 50% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 33% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 26% |
Well today was… boring. But also no surprise. With bond traders getting the day off, no economic news released, we could almost bet the farm that major indexes and many stocks would track dead sideways.
Setting up the day for tomorrow we have a potential 3-day Expansion / Range Contraction / Expansion pattern. If tomorrow price breaks the two day low, we may well see another down day of approximately the same scope as Friday.
In the big picture this will bring the current up trend on the daily charts of some indexes into danger—remember, at this point the Nasdaq Composite / NDX, the S&P 500 and the NYSE Composite all remain in up trends on the daily chart. Somewhere around these levels buyers must show up if the up trends are to remain intact.
I’ll discuss this more on Tuesday morning.
Closing data for Monday October 11th.
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