Tuesday, November 2, 2004
Issue Contents:
| 05:56 | Swing Scanner Results Monday November 1 closing data. |
| 05:57 | Market Statistics For Monday November 1. |
| 09:09 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news. |
| 09:26 | Swing Trade Setups Featured setups for Tuesday November 2. |
| 09:39 | Quick Take: Market Indexes COMPX, NYA, SPX, INDU |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
| 23:09 | Swing Scanner Results Tuesday November 2nd closing data. |
| 23:11 | Market Statistics For Tuesday November 2nd. |
Monday November 1 closing data.
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Statistics for Monday November 1
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 530 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 247 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 2.14 : 1 |
| Advancers | 33% |
| Decliners | 28% |
| Unchanged | 39% |
| Close > 20EMA | 54% |
| Close > 50SMA | 66% |
| Close > 200SMA | 53% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 34% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 22% |
Interesting – the number of unchanged stocks ( inside days ) is up dramatically on Monday. Well, that certainly reflects the broader indexes.
Good morning, on this the 307th day of 2004 as American’s head to the polls in today’s U.S. presidential and congressional elections.
Russian oil giant Yukos is in the news again today, after Russian authorities assessed a new and higher than expected back-tax bill of 50 at this point.
Weekly chain store sales fell for a third week in a row, and year to year comparisons are also registering weakness.3
US Market Calendar
- 8:55 am: Redbook – Oct. 30th week
- 9:00 am: ICSC-UBS Weekly Chain Store Sales Snapshot for the week ended October 30
- 10:00 am: Challenger Layoff Report – October
Canadian Market Calendar
- No releases.
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
1 Yukos shares drop on new tax bill
2 Spectacular attacks hit Iraq oil flow
3 US chain store sales fall, annual growth slows
Featured setups from Monday November 1 closing data symbol scan
Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups | Special Situations
Notes for the Day
After yesterday’s relative snoozer of a day, characterized by low volume and listless trade, personally I plan on taking it relatively easy. Tomorrow hopefully America will learn that it knows which Candidate is President and markets will move on.
Additional setups, including Canadian names, will be published in TrendVue Trader Talk shortly.
Long Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
XLNX – buy stop 30.80, protective stop if filled 30.25.
AMCC – while this has reached its traditional targets, and there is no clear test of bottom in place, aggressive traders can position above yesterday’s down bar (which pulled back to the 50% line of the tall up bar – a positive) with a buy stop 3.66, protective stop if filled 3.48.
Test of Top – Continuation
BJ – bull flag forming at a test of top. Buy stop 29.26, protective stop if filled 28.73.
LUV – airline has been rising even with higher oil.
CA with target just overhead.
Short Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, place a sell alert at or just below the low of the setup bar, and look for the first failed intraday bounce after the low has been broken. What we are looking for is price to push down, bounce a little, and fail again – this is where we want to get short.
Test of Bottom – Continuation
JCP
Special Situations
LU – long – appears to have built a base of support, buy stop 3.60 to capture any attempt to move higher here.
Before the bell market indexes as of Monday:
We’ve seen price bounce to the underside of the rising trendline on COMPX, NYA and INX (SPX) and do a “running stall” – small upside movements with narrow ranges. Price action in intraday futures, and in many stocks, has been indicative of indecision as market participants hold their breath and hope for a clear result – any result – from the US presidential elections underway today.
Post-election if markets do sell off we’ll be first looking to see if support is found approximately 50% of the way down the latest leg up.
Today's transcript.
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Tuesday November 2nd closing data.
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Statistics for Tuesday November 2
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 541 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 235 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 2.30 : 1 |
| Advancers | 50% |
| Decliners | 48% |
| Unchanged | 2% |
| Close > 20EMA | 50% |
| Close > 50SMA | 66% |
| Close > 200SMA | 52% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 34% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 22% |