Wednesday, November 3, 2004
Issue Contents:
| 08:56 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news. |
| 09:09 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for November 3rd. |
| 09:30 | Post Election Reaction: Currencies Our first "sector" look. |
| 14:51 | Sector: Automobiles Dow Jones US Automobile Index and components. |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
| 21:21 | Swing Scanner Results Wednesday November 3rd closing data. |
| 21:23 | Market Statistics For Wednesday November 3rd. |
Good morning, on this the 308th day of 2004, the 3rd day of November, and quite likely the 1st day of post-election litigation.
Markets obviously liked early news of a potential Bush win yesterday, and sold off, in light volume trade, as exit polls began to put that in doubt. Its no surprise that even with the current uncertainty, pre-open stock futures markets are trading up strongly.
Whether a move up here represents an ideal selling opportunity or a new leg up, we won’t know until well after the open. It does seem likely that markets will discount the uncertainty of the Ohio vote, although any news of litigation may introduce enough fear to limit gains.
US Market Calendar
- 7:00 am: MBA Purchase Applications
- 10:00 am: Factory Orders
- 10:00 am: ISM Non-Mfg Survery
- 10:30 am: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- 11:00 am: Consumer Comfort Index for the week ended Oct. 29
- 4:00 pm: Motor Vehicle Sales
Canadian Market Calendar
- 8:15 am: Foreign Reserves – Oct.
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
Featured setups from Tuesday November 2 closing data symbol scan
Jump to: Long Setups
h2. Notes for the Day
Assuming news from the Kerry camp does not shake markets, joining a gap up move is what we face today. Individual stocks may provide easier opportunities as they retrace after the initial move up. Finding safer things to enter is going to be a challenge.
Currencies are rising against the US $ which is dropping like a rock.
IMPORTANT: The site experienced some downtime earlier this morning – there seem to be communications issues in some parts of New Jersey where our data center is located. If you can’t reach the site during the day, now you know why. Issues will be resolved asap. Its going to be one of “those” days.
Due to these issues all further setups will be published in Trader Talk this morning starting now.
Long Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
CSX – rail has been hot hot hot lately and offers a pause here.
PDG – golds may all move higher today.
NEM – be sure price moves back up into the rising triangle.
ABX – if Gold causes gap ups, even ABX may trigger.
Post Election Reaction: Currencies
Today I’ll be publishing a look at various markets and sectors with a view to how they may react post-election. First up, currencies – world currencies are generally appreciating against the US dollar, which conversely is falling like a rock at the moment.
USDCAD – new multi-decade lows dead ahead
EURUSD about to break up out of the triangle
USRJPY – outside day forming here, new low dead ahead.
US Dollar Index – pushing lower than this snap shot suggests.
Gold – gets a lift after selling off yesterday, presumably on potential for a Kerry win.
Dow Jones US Automobile Index – a bounce in a down trend until proven otherwise. A sampling of components shows price stalling at resistance however few of our classic short entry setups are in place as yet. An index to watch. First target on the down side will be the base of the rising wedges present.
GM closely matches the index chart – its an extended bear flag – usually we prefer to short below a bounce of 4 – 6 bars maximum, and as the bounce gets older we want to be more and more guarded.
F released results yet hasn’t broken down completely yet.
GT Goodyear Tire in a rising wedge to resistance.
DPH Delphi will be on our short list tomorrow.
Today's transcript.
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Wednesday November 3rd closing data.
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Statistics for Wednesday November 3
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 614 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 160 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 3.83 : 1 |
| Advancers | 74% |
| Decliners | 25% |
| Unchanged | 2% |
| Close > 20EMA | 74% |
| Close > 50SMA | 73% |
| Close > 200SMA | 55% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 34% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 21% |