Tuesday, November 30, 2004
Issue Contents:
| 08:26 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news. |
| 09:26 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Tuesday November 30th. |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
| 22:00 | Swing Scanner Results Tuesday November 30th closing data. |
| 22:00 | Market Statistics for Tuesday November 30 |
Good morning, on this the 335th day of 2004. We’ve got a day packed with economic news ahead, with early reports on Retail sales1, Gross Domestic Product and inflation, and the Chicago Purchasing Manager’s index later this morning.
“The [retail sales] season appears to be off to a rather shaky start,” Michael Niemira, ICSC chief economist, said in a statement. The “first weekend of the holiday season is typically not an accurate predictor of the rest of the season, so the industry still has reason to remain cautiously optimistic.”1
US Market Calendar
- 7:45 am: ICSC-UBS Store Sales1
- 8:30 am: Corporate Profits
- 8:30 am: GDP
- 8:55 am: Redbook
- 10:00 am: Consumer Confidence
- 10:00 am: NAPM-Chicago
- 3:00 pm: Farm Prices
Canadian Market Calendar
- U.S. President George W. Bush starts 2-day visit to Canada
- 8:30 am: Real GDP – Q3
- 8:30 am: Real GDP at Basic Prices – Sep.
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
1 Wal-Mart, Retailers’ November Sales Slow as Gas Prices Rise
Featured setups from Monday November 29 closing data symbol scan
Jump to: Long Setups
Notes for the Day
Futures strengthened a little after the GDP report, a plus. Price is still stuck within the range and futures had been weak based on early retail reports it would seem, a negative. Since price has been moving sideways now for approximately six days, the end of this range is now closer than the begining. We’ll have to be ready for either eventuality and wait for it.
ANN certainly delivered yesterday on the short side... Odd, I just realized I have no stocks in the short list. That doesn’t happen all that often. We’ll play this buy ear and see what direction markets are willing to take – check TrendVue Trader Talk for more picks long and short as the morning moves forward.
Long Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
Energy Related
CVX – pause just below a test of top.
SUN – extremely strong – perhaps needs to pull back more, but should be on any energy buff’s list to buy on retracements. Note the gap up – if price triggers demand it close strong before holding.
XTO – first retracement after a “breakout”
CMT:C (TSX) minor retracement just below a test of top.
TA:C (TSX) Minor down bar at a test of top.
ESI:C (TSX) oil services. Retracement following “breakout”.
XLE – US energy ETF – first retracement after a “breakout”
Other sectors
CMCSA – cable
CHTR – also in cable, very speculative buy above this retracement near a possible bottom. Tight stops please.
EQR – retracement after finding support.
CP:C (TSX) perhaps may need to retrace more but occasionally a chart like this will simply continue. Caution.
Today's transcript.
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Tuesday November 30th closing data.
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Statistics for Tuesday November 30
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 333 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 439 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 0.75 : 1 |
| Advancers | 36% |
| Decliners | 62% |
| Unchanged | 2% |
| Close > 20EMA | 36% |
| Close > 50SMA | 81% |
| Close > 200SMA | 63% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 49% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 11% |