Monday, November 8, 2004
Issue Contents:
| 09:00 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news. |
| 09:27 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Monday November 8th. |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
| 18:08 | Swing Scanner Results Monday November 8th closing data. |
| 18:08 | Market Statistics For Monday November 8th. |
Good morning, on this the 313th day of 2004. With next to no economic news releases today, traders will be acting on pure emotion, brokerage upgrades / down grades, the few remaining quarterly results releases, and of course international news.
The US dollar fell to a new historic low against the Euro earlier today, while strength in the Yen against the dollar gave traders enough reason to take some profits and helped push Japanese markets down 0.7 percent. Racial tension mounts in the Netherlands, and the Falluja offensive in Iraq is underweigh and early news from Iraq may weigh in on markets today.
US Market Calendar
- No releases of note.
Canadian Market Calendar
- 8:15 am: Housing Starts – October
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
Featured setups from Friday November 5 closing data symbol scan
Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups | Special Situations
Notes for the Day
Caution on the long side – about sums up my take based on looking through hundreds of charts. With a narrowing of range across a fair percentage of the market on Friday, the question for today is “was Friday a pause before continuation” or the pause before a pull back? We’ll find out shortly here.
Caution on the long side doesn’t mean short with abandon – at least not at this junction. Frankly there aren’t many stocks out there with decent pauses to provide safe entry – so today’s list is neccessarily a little light on choices. Oil services look to have some potential again here; we’ll look through the sector indexes and ETF’s for more ideas this morning.
Long Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
VRC – ordinarily I don’t want to even look at a stock in a triangle, but if there is a reason to, we can put the rule aside. A minor poke up through the triangle top on Thursday was followed by a pull back directly within. We can often catch a surprise move back out by lurking above the apparent triangle failure. The daily chart of the oil services sector also has a bull flag to offer too.
KBH – bull flag just under a test of top.
ANN on Friday left an inside bar in the upper 50% of the tall up bar. Aggressive traders will put a buy stop at 23.16 to attempt to catch a direct move higher. Caution – since the range on Thursday is so large, risk is higher here – so intraday traders only, move to break even stop asap.
Short Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, place a sell alert at or just below the low of the setup bar, and look for the first failed intraday bounce after the low has been broken. What we are looking for is price to push down, bounce a little, and fail again – this is where we want to get short.
Retracement or Pause in Down Swing / Down Trend
CAM – sell alert at the two day low.
AVP sell short alert 38.81
Special Situations
I chose the following charts almost at random – for stocks that have been trending for a while, the following patterns are not uncommon here:
LTD
UNP
A small narrow range day in the upper end of a tall up bar. IF price is to continue directly higher an aggressive trader can capture at least an intraday move up by locating a buy stop just above Friday’s high, BUT I would suggest only intraday traders attempt this and be aware that a minor move up and reversal is easily possible here with prices so stretched.
Today's transcript.
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Monday November 8th closing data.
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Statistics for Monday November 8
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 580 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 194 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 2.98 : 1 |
| Advancers | 44% |
| Decliners | 54% |
| Unchanged | 2% |
| Close > 20EMA | 44% |
| Close > 50SMA | 79% |
| Close > 200SMA | 60% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 40% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 13% |