Wednesday, December 1, 2004
Issue Contents:
| 09:07 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news. |
| 09:22 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Wednesday December 1st. |
| 09:56 | Market Direction Now or never. |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
| 17:54 | Symbol Scanner Results Wednesday December 1st closing data. |
| 17:55 | Market Statistics For Wednesday December 1st. |
Good morning, on ths the 336th day of 2004. Can the Dow eek out a positive return for 2004 in the month remaining? Its the only major index which remains below the start of the year level, albeit not by much.
Meanwhile, this morning’s report on income and spending suggests the consumer is still out there spending – that’s always a key fear for the market “will the consumer stop”:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. consumer spending rose a sharper-than-expected 0.7 percent in October, but rising food and energy prices ate up much of that gain, a government report showed on Wednesday.
Adjusted for inflation, personal spending climbed a smaller 0.3 percent, a slowdown from September’s 0.5 percent advance, the Commerce Department said.
Incomes rose 0.6 percent in October, the biggest increase since May and well ahead of September’s 0.2 percent increase, as wages advanced 0.5 percent. More >
Keep an eye open for the Weekly Petroleum Status report at 10:30, and an ear out for comments made by Frisco Fed President Yellen, since she managed to cause a little ripple in currency markets last week with comments in a speech, perhaps she can do it again.
US Market Calendar
- 7:00 am: MBA Purchase Applications
- 8:30 am: Personal Income and Outlays
- 10:00 am: Construction Spending
- 10:00 am: ISM Mfg Index
- 10:30 am: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- 1:30 pm (ET) : San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Janet Yellen speaks at Arizona State University luncheon on the U.S. economic outlook.
- 2:00 pm: Beige Book
- 4:00 pm: Motor Vehicle Sales
Canadian Market Calendar
8:30 am: Industrial Product Price Index – Oct.
8:30 am: Raw Materials Price Index – Oct.
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
Featured setups from Tuesday November 30 closing data symbol scan
Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups | Special Situations
Notes for the Day
Two indecision days in a row – the market didn’t seem to want to fall apart, so perhaps today it will try to move up. Once triggered, today I think more than ever we need to be sure that swing trades move into profitability quickly—and stay there—or the best option is to bail them. Following a narrow range inside day we don’t want to get trapped long only to find we are caught in losing big range outside day. Such things happen when price is moving sideways…
Long Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
QCOM
BIIB
GE – now on bar 7 of the retracement, getting a little long in the tooth but also above the two next areas of support. Often a proxy for broader market.
XOM – and other oil’s which did not trigger from yesterday’s list
TLM:C (TSX) also TLM:NYSE
SU:C (TSX) also SU:NYSE
ATI
CTX – 3 inside up setup
KGC – Golds are acting weak, caution. Will post a note on Gold and currency today.
Test of Top – Continuation
ETFS
XIU:C (TSX 60 ETF)
SPY
QQQ
Short Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, place a sell alert at or just below the low of the setup bar, and look for the first failed intraday bounce after the low has been broken. What we are looking for is price to push down, bounce a little, and fail again – this is where we want to get short.
Retracement or Pause in Down Swing / Down Trend
TLAB
Special Situations
AVN – long – triangle, caution. Recent high is target 1.
Quick take on markets – we knew from pre-open futures to expect an attack on yesterday’s highs off the daily charts – this will trigger a number of new longs for traders and investors all around the world. The big question is, are new buyers lined up behind these first folks, ready to prop prices up further? Or will the first foray up fail?
I won’t be adding this morning until the first retracement comes through, and then price pushes up again, proving that it can.
Also remember that the two broad indexes – COMPX and NYA – both have failed tests of tops, until proven otherwise.
Today's transcript.
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Wednesday December 1st closing data.
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Statistics for Wednesday December 1
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 476 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 294 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 1.61 : 1 |
| Advancers | 79% |
| Decliners | 20% |
| Unchanged | 2% |
| Close > 20EMA | 79% |
| Close > 50SMA | 84% |
| Close > 200SMA | 68% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 48% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 11% |