Wednesday, December 15, 2004
Issue Contents:
| 10:49 | Good morning Mike's schedule for today. |
| 10:55 | Swing Scanner Results Tuesday December 15th closing data. TrendVue Market Analysis subscribers can access this component for today. |
| 10:59 | Market Statistics for Tuesday December 14 |
| 11:13 | Market Direction Analysis Review of S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, NYSE and NASDAQ market internals. |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
| 17:47 | Swing Scanner Results Wednesday December 15th closing data. |
| 17:48 | Market Statistics For Wednesday December 15th. |
Good morning everyone – I’m still fighting off a case of pneumonia here and will have to hit the sack and work more on purging this infection.
I think this mornings one joke is about the best I can come up with today:
Unfortunately I’m still suffering more than I should be, although the antibiotics appear to have me on an uptrend. I think I did a personal 2B test of bottom yesterday and am now failing the first bounce, but hope its a failed bear flag.
I am working on an overview of market internals as there are some interesting things happening here this week. I won’t be trading much here today – I’ve put on a S&P 500 futures short here recently at 1207.50 and for purely personal reasons I rather hope it works straight away so I can get back to bed.
If price does re-strengthen and move back above the range highs and hold, we might see another good move up which intraday swing traders can exploit with futures or SPY / DIA / QQQQ ETFs.
Tuesday December 15th closing data. TrendVue Market Analysis subscribers can access this component for today.
Click on the title above to expand this document.
Statistics for Tuesday December 14
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 593 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 175 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 3.38 : 1 |
| Advancers | 66% |
| Decliners | 32% |
| Unchanged | 2% |
| Close > 20EMA | 66% |
| Close > 50SMA | 81% |
| Close > 200SMA | 72% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 49% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 11% |
Generally speaking you can’t ask for more – prices have hit new highs; a “break out” above the recent trading range has been made. Still, there are some issues here we should look at.
Market Internals
- Yesterday NYA hit new highs even as there are some divergences in the New High
- Divergence in our custom A/D volume indicator.
SPX and VIX – we also learned that VIX hit a new 9 year low this week – in fact VIX gapped down, showing a total lack of fear on that day.
VIX is threatening to reverse which plays into a market timing sell setup called the Larry Connors VIX Reversal on the link provided for a Knowledge Base article on this sell / buy setup.
ES 15M chart breaks the rising trendline; sometimes this provides an ideal for an aggressive intraday long – think of the quick break as a “trap” and what would happen if price reversed strongly.
On the other hand if the bounce is weak and within the lower half of the tall down bar, sellers will come out again if price heads lower. Note also that ADX had moved to over 40 on the 45 minute chart – in that time frame, when ADX moves above 40 we start to feel that price has been stretched too far. For smaller time frame charts, such as 1, 5 or 15 minute, its not uncommon for ADX to rise to 50, 60 and sometimes much higher.
If you ever are in such a trade (ADX > 50), tightening up stops to maximize profit taking makes a ton of sense.
Again on the 45M chart we see that the primary target has been reached (close enough for our purposes) – now the next key bit of information is whether price will again find support here. If not, we can expect a retracement into the range. Yellow alert on break of the range high; red alert on break of the range low, particularly if price is trending (lower swing highs, lower swing lows) down.
Taking Advantage Of Clues
Market direction analysis gives us clues as to when we should be hunting down possible changes in trend. Knowing that the picture here adds up to at least an attempt at failure (more sellers than buyers), I know what I have to do.
Due to the divergences in new highs and our volume indicator, I decided to stalk a failed test of intraday highs, and was rewarded with a decent entry point at 1207.50. WIth a break even stop in place now, I feel comfortable leaving this trade open for the day and will evaluate it at the close; if a decent profit cushion is built up, I’ll hold it over night.
Today's transcript.
Click on the title above to expand this document.
Wednesday December 15th closing data.
Click on the title above to expand this document.
Statistics for Wednesday December 15
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 606 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 162 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 3.74 : 1 |
| Advancers | 65% |
| Decliners | 33% |
| Unchanged | 2% |
| Close > 20EMA | 65% |
| Close > 50SMA | 82% |
| Close > 200SMA | 72% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 50% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 9% |