Monday, December 6, 2004
Issue Contents:
| 08:59 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news. |
| 09:23 | Market Direction NYSE, NASDAQ and TSX |
| 09:37 | Swing Trade Setups Please visit TrendVue Trader Talk |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
| 18:14 | Swing Scanner Results Monday December 6th closing data. |
| 18:21 | Market Statistics For Monday December 6th. |
Good morning, on this the 341st day of 2004. Crude oil is trading over 1.5% higher on security concerns after a weekend of news including problems in Nigeria, an attack on a US Consulate in Saudi Arabia, rumours of smaller reserve life coming out of Saudi Arabia, and no doubt no small influence to the price bounce is a simple snap back reaction to last week’s sharp sell off.
US Market Calendar
- Only regular bond and treasury notes auctions to report on.
Canadian Market Calendar
- 8:30 am: Building Permits – Oct.
- 10:00 am: Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index – Nov.
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
Over the weekend I ported my market internals charts from Tradestation to TickQuest’s NeoTicker and along the way made some minor changes and improvements to them.
One bonus of satellite delivered DTN Realtime data is the availability of New High and New Low statistics at the close of trading – I’m not aware of any other service which provides this. In fact, many data services do not provide this calculated statistic, period. DTN sister company IQFeed offers very complete and price competitive product which does include this data and a wealth of other statistics not commonly found from internet-delivered data services, although the new high/new low data is not available until long after the close to my knowledge.
NYSE
- ADX is in the extreme range, near 48
- New highs are falling even as price is rising
- Declining volume is starting to assert itselve
- Point 4 on the chart marks where a reasonable retracement should stop; anything much deeper than this level ought to be looked at with much more skepticism.
NASDAQ
- ADX us above 40 and headed to extreme levels; high ADX does not automatically mean a strong advance or decilne is over, but it does warn us that the end is closer than the start.
- New highs are contracting even as price is rising
- A trendline on the advance/decline line can be useful in identifying market tops and bottoms – we look for a cross through the trendline as part confirmation
- Midway down the tall up bar is where first support should come in on any decline. Do note also the spikes visible in the past two candles – another sign of topping action.
TSX
No market internal data is available for the TSX from common data providers, however I am working on constructing these statistics for our purposes. Stay tuned.
Thanks in part to recent sell-offs in the energy and metals sectors the TSX overall has not advanced much during the past week. Here a trendline is our basic guide. ETF buyers might look at XIU:C (TSX) for a buy above Friday’s high if broken, and I do stress IF as markets are likely to at least start the day weak.
This morning we shall post swing trade setups in the live discussion forum; those unable to join in can view the almost-live transcript for TrendVue Trader Talk by clicking here.
Today's transcript.
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Monday December 6th closing data.
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Statistics for Monday December 6
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 412 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 357 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 1.15 : 1 |
| Advancers | 44% |
| Decliners | 54% |
| Unchanged | 2% |
| Close > 20EMA | 44% |
| Close > 50SMA | 82% |
| Close > 200SMA | 70% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 48% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 9% |
Today a new down swing started in the NYSE Composite index; on the NASDAQ Composite index a single down bar in a still-intact up swing was left behind today’s trading. I note that from Friday to today the number of stocks trading about their 20 period moving average has dropped 12 points from 56% to 44%. Clearly a large part of the market is pulling back here farther than the averages would suggest.
Still, a good surge up tomorrow could cure all that. In the meantime we are on yellow-alert for a more significant pull back. It doesn’t hurt to be ready.