Friday, February 6, 2004
Issue Contents:
| 09:12 | Daily Swing Trade Today's setups. |
| 09:50 | Good Morning. Full moon. |
| 12:06 | Economic Data Summary of key releases. |
| 13:25 | Thursday Night Report Teresa pulls a Martha. |
| 16:16 | Active Trader Transcript Real time forum log. |
Let's update yesterday's picks.
BIIB/Biogen - Buy stop was not elected. We now have a lower swing low, and this opens the door to a classic bull flag forming on the daily chart. Traders who wish to pursue this higher risk buy setup should move the buy alarm down to yesterday's high. If triggered, the initial stop loss should be placed just above yesterday's low. Upside targets have not changed.
MAY/May Department Stores - Buy stop was elected. Upside targets were hit.
CPWR/Compuware - Buy stop was elected. Needs to get to the first upside target today. Move stop loss up to just above yesterday's low.
BRCM/Broadcom - Intraday setups only. Can continue to look for short side setups on the 10-minute charts in case the big support is broken.
EBAY/Ebay Inc. - Intraday setup on the short side did not materialize. Give up on this one for now.
GENZ/Genzyme - Intraday setup on the short side but no dramatic action. Will see if it can get to the first downside target on the daily chart today, but remember, the target is only $1.20 away, so play it on the 10-minute charts intraday.
IBM/International Business Machines - Sell stop elected. Move stop loss down to just under yesterday's high. Would like to see this reach the first downside target of the 20-day EMA below in the 97.10 area today.
ETR/Entergy - Buy stop was not elected. Aggressive traders can move the buy alarm up to yesterday's high. Would like to see price stay above the January 26 swing high. This is a higher risk trade as we may have a spike top forming on an all-time high.
FAST/Fastsenal - Sell stop was not elected. Move sell alarm up to yesterday's low. No change in setup or downside target. Remember, tight stop on this one if the sell stop is elected.
HAL/Haliburton - Sell setup came close enough to the first downside target to say bingo!
HCA/HCA Inc. - Downside target at the 50-day MA was reached.
INTC/Intel - Intraday setup on the short side, and we'll see if today presents more opportunities on test of the December 12, 2003 swing low.
That's it for now.
It's full moon today as madness strikes on the non-farm payroll numbers.
I, for one, am happy it's Friday.
Non-farm Payrolls 112,000
Unemployment Rate 5.6%
Average Hourly Earnings +0.1%
Average Work Week 33.7
(Econoday.com) - Despite a surging economy, employment growth is moderate at best. Nonfarm payrolls rose a lower-than-expected 112,000 in January. Balancing the disappointment was a net 55,000 upward revision in December and November data. The effect of new benchmarks and seasonal adjustments appeared modest.
The monthly employment report dominates economic expectations and often sets the tone for other data through the month. December's weak data held back stocks and held up bonds through January. January's data are likely to do the same through February. The fourth-quarter average, at a time of booming 8.2 percent GDP growth, showed a paltry payroll gain of 62,000.
The unemployment rate continues to give a misleading signal. The rate fell a notch to 5.6 percent, an improvement distorted by a second month of decline in the available labor force. The Labor Department expressed concern over the discrepancies between the establishment and household data, but said the establishment survey doesn't in fact lag. The department instead noted differences in how the two surveys categorize independent contractors.
There were good signs in the report. Aggregate hours rose 0.8 percent while the average workweek rose slightly to 33.7 hours. Rising hours and longer weeks will sooner or later force employers to increase hiring. Wages understandably remain tame. Hourly earnings rose only 0.1 percent in the month, and the year-on-year pace, at 2.0 percent, is the lowest since 1987.
A negative sign in the report was a 21,000 decline in temporary hirings, ending eight months of gains. The category should improve first during a recovery, as employers begin building staff with temporaries before hiring full-time workers. Manufacturing hiring, despite the 50+ readings in the ISM employment index, contracted again, down 11,000 in the month. Payrolls in retail trade rose a sharp 76,000, reversing two months of declines and adding substantially to January's net gain. But seasonal factors may have been at play, adding back workers that were never hired.
Consumer Credit $7.0 Billion
(Econoday.com) - Consumer installment credit expanded by $4.1 billion in November, after recording a sharper 8.3 billion gain in October. The drop in motor vehicle sales in November largely contributed to the slower pace of growth. December vehicle sales surged and this should lead to another spurt in consumer credit.
You know the TrendVue philosophy. We trade to live, not live to trade. After the market, we never think about it much, and turn our attention to things like family, and life.
In our town, the night for going out is never Saturday, or even Friday. From the dawn of my career in the brokerage industry, Thursday was the night for the "in crowd" to hang out.
It's been years since I left the business. I have to admit to getting a little cabin fever, so I resolved to venture outside again on Thursdays. Over time, I should be able to compile a good travel journal for anyone visiting Vancouver, at least when it comes to indoor fun at restaurants!
My first Thursday evening out this year was on January 15, when I drove up to Whistler for dinner. Last night, I had a low key sort of evening, but came face to face with what I have always considered to be a disturbing trend.
I know it's not a big deal compared to things like achieving world peace, but making hard liquor taste like candy seems to me to a big marketing effort to get people to drink more of it, in addition to luring young ones to consider booze to be more like soft drinks with an edge. These days, you can hardly find a person under 40 who knows that a martini used to be a combination of gin, Italian/French vermouth, and angostrura bitters served with a twist or an olive. They've morphed into six-ounce fruit slushies.
As a purist, I've managed to steered clear of these things, but last night, my wine and spirits partner in crime cracked open a new bottle of -- gasp -- Glenmorangie Port Wood Finish! The flavorization craze had even reached the last bastion of decorum and good sense: the single malt scotch whiskey. It's been a few years since Glenmorangie came up with an offering of different "finishes", but I avoided them like the plague, preferring to stick with the 18 -- The Macallan, that is. Visions of the big oak California Chardonnays, huge tannin California Cabernets, and those Absolut-ly fruitty vodkas flashed before my eyes.
I was forced to wrestle with the issue right there. Cocktails or no cocktails? To taste or not to taste? That was the question. But guess what? Surprise! Glenmorangie did it with the perfect touch. Maybe it's just like technical analysis. We can't be permabulls or permabears. Each chart has to be evaluated on it's own merit, and when it comes to that, some of us prefer to look at price and volume bars while others depend on tons of indicators...
Real time forum log.
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