Monday, March 8, 2004
Issue Contents:
| 08:08 | The Day Ahead U.S. market calendar. |
| 08:15 | SwingScanner Results Swing trade short list for Monday. |
| 08:30 | The Swing Trader Update open positions. |
| 09:11 | The Swing Trader Today's stock picks. |
| 16:16 | Active Trader Transcript Real time forum log. |
| 20:53 | Economic Data Summary of today's releases. |
| 20:58 | Volume Leaders NASDAQ, NYSE and AMEX. |
Monday, March 8, 2004
- 11:00AM 5-Year Treasury Note Announcement
- 11:00AM 10-Year Treasury Note Announcement
- 11:00AM 4-Week Treasury Note Announcement
- 1:00PM 3-Month Treasury Bill Auction
- 1:00PM 6-Month Treasury Bill Auction
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
I continue to progress in refining the SwingScanner criteria. Turns out that the software is actually quite capable, and so I'll keep working on it until we get it just right.
Potential bull flags in uptrend.- SYY
- K
- CC
- GSK
- THC
- CBST
Let's update the last batch of picks first.
TIF made it to target on schedule. Traders who wish to continue holding this trade in case there is upside should move their stop loss to just under last Friday's low.
Didn't plan to trade HMA anyway, but you can see how this little bear flag made it back to the gap overhead (resistance) to form a 3-bar bear flag before sellers came out to try to whack it.
Let's move on to today's picks.
The SwingScanner list for today is a short one.
On the surface, the daily chart of SYY is not bad. A simple bull flag, on bar 4 of the pullback in an uptrend. The swing trade is triggered on break of last Friday's high, and the initial stop loss should be placed a penny or two above last Friday's low.
When we look at the weekly chart, there is concern of course, since there is a big two-candle harami spike pattern here. Just like the last batch, there is a big warning sign looming overhead. If last week's low is broken, it will be a big "heads up".
The daily chart of K is similar to SYY in that this is Bar 4 of a simple bull flag in an uptrend. Again, the swing trading strategy is to buy on break of last Friday's high, with an initial stop loss a penny or two above last Friday's low.
Again, there is some potential for a spike top on the weekly chart that needs a third candle (this week's candle) to confirm. The first heads up point will be the break of last week's low.
On the short side, you can see there are a lot of stocks such as GSK that are trying to hold the 200-day moving average.
On the daily chart, this is the first attempt to bounce after hitting the 200-day MA, and if there is no convinving thrust up, the sellers will come out at overhead resistance. The swing trade to set up the short sale is to sell short on break of last Friday's low. The initial stop loss will be last Friday's high, and the initial downside target is last Thursday's low.
THC and CBST are not setups that I would trade. CBST is a nice pattern, but too cheap, while THC is cheap and congested. That's it for today.
Real time forum log.
Click on the title above to expand this document.
3-Month Bill Treasury Rate 0.930%
(Econoday.com) - The high rate for the 3-month bill auction edged down 1 basis point to 0.930 percent, with the bid-to-cover ratio a firm 2.00 vs. 2.09 last week (both $19 billion auctions).
6-Month Bill Treasury Rate 0.975%
(Econoday.com) - The high rate for the 6-month bill auction edged down 1-1/2 basis points to 0.975 percent, with the bid-to-cover ratio at 2.03 vs. 2.23 last week (both $17 billion auctions). Through February, the 6-month bill rate had seen less upward pressure than the 3-month rate, as the latter is more sensitive to changes in expectations for the Federal Reserve's overnight rate.
We will review the stocks on these lists overnight, along with today's SwingScanner results to see if there are any swing trade setups for tomorrow.
These are the top 25 NASDAQ volume leaders.
INTC
SUNW
MSFT
CSCO
ORCL
DFCT
JDSU
AMAT
SIRI
CORV
DELL
TASR
BRCD
EBAY
MAMA
SEBL
NXTL
CIEN
PMCS
QCOM
CNXT
RFMD
YHOO
VRTS
AAPL
These are the top 25 NYSE volume leaders.
LU
NT
GE
AWE
L
PFE
ELN
NOK
MOT
MSO
MDT
TXN
AGRa
ESA
TWX
XOM
F
AMD
EMC
C
GLW
HPQ
PCS
JPM
Q
These are the top 25 AMEX volume leaders.
QQQ
SPY
SMH
EWJ
DIA
IWM
WHT
KRY
BGO
SNG
GSS
IVX
ABP
TLT
DVN
OIH
EWT
XLI
NXG
MDY
TTP
RTH
TKO
XLF
NBR