Wednesday, April 28, 2004
Issue Contents:
| 13:53 | Good Morning Progress Report |
| 14:48 | Forex Strategy Update USD vs CAD, EUR, JPY and a hint of Gold. |
| 16:16 | TrendVue Active Trader Today's transcript. |
| 16:16 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
While I recovered from the technical difficulties with TradeStation 2000i over the past couple of days, it occurred to me that it would be best if Mike and I split up the duties so that we're rarely down for the count.
Over the next day or two, we are going to iron it all out so that next Monday, we will be firing on all cylinders. Subscribers to our real-time coaching services should expect an email message over the weekend as we will be making some changes to our schedule earlier than expected, so that we can focus on getting the newsletter consistent on a daily basis.
In the meantime, I finally found an interesting site on trading that I can actually recommend: OriginalTurtles.org.
/Teresa
We've been saying for some time that the US Dollar has been reversing against major currencies, all the while popular analysts have continued to single out the greenback as weak. Its only the past few weeks or so that we've started to note commentators start to talk about the upside potential that we've been highlighting since late winter.
Its been a popular refrain from reporting companies as well.
CP Rail's Q1 earnings drop 76% on weak U.S. dollar, severe weather
CALGARY (CP) - Canadian Pacific Railway blamed bad weather and a slumping U.S. dollar for a 76 per cent drop in first-quarter profits despite an increase in revenues from most of its freight hauling businesses.
Today, the US Dollar is on everyones minds. Lets revisit three currencies compared to the USD - JPY, EUR and CAD:
Following the early March break out of the range, EURUSD traders wound this currency into a tight range for almost a month before accepting a change of trend was set in place and since then, EURUSD has continued to attract sellers at every bounce.
The Bank of Japan announced at the end of March that they would no longer intervene in supporting the US Dollar.
Japan ends yen-dollar currency intervention-paper
LONDON, March 28 (Reuters) - Japan's 150 billion pound ($273 billion) campaign to weaken the yen and strengthen the dollar has officially come to an end, the Times newspaper reported, citing sources at the Bank of Japan.
The currency intervention campaign, which has provoked criticism in Washington and deep concern in London, is thought by Japanese officials to be no longer necessary because the country's economic recovery is gathering strength, the London Times newspaper reported in its March 29 edition. ($1=.5502 Pound)
USDJPY shorts got a rude awakening as this market reversed the next day and has trended higher ever since.
Finally, USDCAD has broken out of a long base which we've highlighted for some time.
If we squish bars together we can locate an unorthodox inverted Head and Shoulders pattern which gives us a measured move on the USDCAD which brings price to resistance north of 1.42.
And what's the take away from this sudden realization? There are big shifts in thinking going on in the markets now. What is the impact of a suddenly stronger dollar, when so many expected it to remain weak? These are the questions being asked.
In some areas, no thinking is required. Certain commodities are being hit hard. Take Gold, for instance, which is highly sensitive to the US Dollar.
I put on a trade in Gold via PDG in early April, in an attempt to see if I could capture a surprise move back to the upside in Gold. When it never materialized, the trade was quickly stopped out with a minor loss.
Keeping the big picture in mind - the proximity of Gold to a hugely important test, and how the USD had been strengthening against major world currencies, we knew that the PDG trade had to work right away or not at all.
Days later, we can see that our analysis and trade management was right on. /Mike
Today's transcript.
Click on the title above to expand this document.
Today's transcript.
Click on the title above to expand this document.