Wednesday, June 16, 2004
Issue Contents:
| 09:09 | Swing Trade Setups From Tuesday's closing data |
| 14:36 | Market Direction Intraday update. |
| 14:57 | Focus on Gold Not all that glitters. |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Morning Trader Today's transcript. |
| 16:35 | Symbol Scans Wednesday June 16 closing data. |
| 21:31 | How Microsoft Lost the API War For MSFT watchers, fans and detractors. |
Featured setups from Tuesday June15 closing data symbol scan.
Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups
Long Setups
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
Set buy stop at Tuesday's high; initial sell stop if triggered to be placed at Tuesday's low. This day we are looking for continuation and a higher high than Tuesday or the spectre of a one-day wonder - a single up day followed by continued selling - is raised.
ATVI
RHI
RHI is a retracement near a test of top as well. If triggered, demand that price push up and close with strength.
MERQ
MERQ has the same setup and comments therefore.
S
S - Sears - is a retracement after a strong push up. Buy stop above Tuesday's high to catch a possible direct continuation after the pull back to the 20EMA.
3 Inside Up Setups
BEAS
Could be a long or a short trade since the harami is a "pause". However the gap down does give an enticing set of targets overhead. If market cooperates, probably favouring the long side makes sense. Buy stop just above Tuesday's high.
Test of Bottom
I've included the weekly charts for some of these to underscore the reality that these can go lower. A test of bottom is a test usually worth taking - we'll simply want to demand price move up.
NYB
Now that is a scary looking chart. One has to wonder why a bank stock is fairing so poorly. Could be traded on long or short side, using the inside bar high or low as triggers.
AGR.A
Could be a three times you are out type chart as price hovers near the recent lows for a third time. Tuesday was a narrow range harami. If it does trigger on the long side, demand that price clear Monday's high before considering holding it.
Short Setups
Retracement or Pause in Down Swing / Down Trend
CAG not quite put in an up bar yesterday at a test of the significant swing low. Alerts on Tuesdays low; if triggered we would expect to see a close at or below Monday's low before considering holding overnight. This could also be traded long with a break of Tuesday's high - an "ooops" test of bottom and reversal.
PMCS
PMCS broke down from a triangle and drew an inside bar Tuesday. We can trade this long above the inside bar, demanding that Monday's high be reached - that is a "failure" to break down trade. Or, short on continuation down below the inside bar.
Triangles are somewhat similar to tests of tops/bottoms in that we can often find two directions to trade in when the triangle boundaries are being tested.
Market lack of direction...
With markets marching sideways - each magenta bar representing an inside bar on the 45 minute chart, a very unusual number of them together in fact - we know that a move of decent proportions and increasing speed is not far away.
Given the weekly index charts are still pointing up and some of the daily index charts have started upswings, it continues to makes sense to retain an upward bias, while this congestion area continues to build, although its fair to say that time is running out here.
If buying support does not enter the market shortly, the various gaps below are far more likely to be fully tested than not and we'll have to adopt a negative bias while that process is under way.
This morning in TrendVue Trader Talk we started a discussion on Gold and found an interesting divergence in performance between various stocks the group.
After looking at NEM, FCX, ABX and others:
... it was noted that PDG had a much stronger chart. ABX for example has pulled back over 50% of the recent run up, as compared to PDG's relatively mild retracement and consolidation action. We should note this for the future.
There was no clean chart setup present; a bullish harami was the only distinguishing characteristic of PDG.
A Trader Talk participant did use the divergence in performance as justification for entering PDG and happened to step in on exactly the right day. An intraday entry on the break of Tuesday's high is the setup, and a surprising push up the result.
Intraday we see some of the laggards advancing now as well although not nearly with the price appreciation in PDG. Lets keep an eye on the group for the next couple of days.
The Gold contract is in a position where it needs to reverse immediately or a retest of the year's lows is the next target.
US Dollar Index and EURUSD showing a stronger dollar and a continuation down in EUR off a single up bar. A break of EURUSD 1.954 is T1; 1.769 is the prior 2B test of bottom low. A strengthening USD is not bullish for the gold contract. Perhaps we are witnessing gold stocks diverge from the metal here. We'll follow up this story as neccessary in the coming days.
Today's transcript.
Click on the title above to expand this document.
Today's transcript.
Click on the title above to expand this document.
Wednesday June 16 closing data.
Click on the title above to expand this document.
How Microsoft Lost the API War
Joel Spolsky publishes a big article one in a while, and even if one doesn't agree with him, they are thought provoking enough that tech watchers should add him to their must-read list.
However, there is a less understood phenomenon which is going largely unnoticed: Microsoft's crown strategic jewel, the Windows API, is lost. The cornerstone of Microsoft's monopoly power and incredibly profitable Windows and Office franchises, which account for virtually all of Microsoft's income and covers up a huge array of unprofitable or marginally profitable product lines, the Windows API is no longer of much interest to developers. The goose that lays the golden eggs is not quite dead, but it does have a terminal disease, one that nobody noticed yet. Complete article here.