Friday, June 4, 2004
Issue Contents:
| 02:44 | The Day Ahead Market Calendar |
| 02:54 | Before the Bell Market Overview |
| 09:22 | Jobs Report Pre-market reaction |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Active Trader Today's transcript. |
| 16:48 | Swing Trade Roundup Final comments on June 4 setups. |
Friday June 4 2004 Economic and Earnings News Releases
TGIF, the usually market-moving Labour Department statistics shall be released before stock markets open.
US Market Calendar
- 8:30 am - Non-farm payrolls for May
- 8:30 am - Average hourly earnings
- 8:30 am - Unemployment rate
- 8:30 am - Augmented unemployment rate
- 8:30 am - Pool of available workers
- 10:30 am - Weekly Leading Index
Canadian Market Calendar
- 7:00 am - Employment report - May
- 10:00 am - Ivey Purchasing Managers' Index - May
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar. For a list of speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website.
Good morning.
Long and short trade setups from Thursday's end of day symbol scans have been posted.
Thursday the Nasdaq Composite index broke down bellow the range of the last 5 days and close at its lows.
A rising wedge exists on the COMPX daily chart - the classic resolution of this pattern is that a trend line break eventually takes price to the base of the wedge.
Given that its impossible to know ahead of time if price will follow through, any new long or short side positions will need to be managed aggressively. The first event we will look for on a lower trend line break is whether a move down follows through.
Remember: Before stock markets open we have the usually market-moving Labour Department statistics release at 8:30 am ET.
Another strong jobs report, even as Maytag and others announce new rounds of sizable layoffs, causing some commentators to believe that a 50 point rate hike is increasingly likely.
Overnight trade had already pushed futures prices back into the trading range, the report itself added a bit more fuel to the move up.
Long trade setups identified may trigger at or near the open - we will have to be on gaurd for a "pop and drop" situation where lack of follow through might raise the possibility of a failure to hold the range.
At the moment though we'll assume the market is going up and act accordingly but with caution.
The actual jobs report:
http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 248,000 in May, and the unemployment
rate was unchanged at 5.6 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S.
Department of Labor reported today. The May increase in payroll employment
follows gains of 346,000 in April and 353,000 in March (as revised). Job
growth in May again was widespread, as increases continued in construction,
manufacturing, and several service-providing industries.
Unemployment (Household Survey Data)
The number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged at 8.2 million
in May, and the unemployment rate held at 5.6 percent. The unemployment rate
has been either 5.6 or 5.7 percent in each month since December 2003. The
unemployment rates for the major worker groups--adult men (5.2 percent), adult
women (4.8 percent), teenagers (17.2 percent), whites (5.0 percent), blacks
(9.9 percent), and Hispanics or Latinos (7.0 percent)--were little changed in
May. The unemployment rate for Asians was 4.2 percent, not seasonally ad-
justed. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
Total Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)
Total employment was 138.8 million in May, and the employment-population
ratio--the proportion of the population age 16 and over with jobs--remained
at 62.2 percent. The civilian labor force participation rate was 65.9 per-
cent for the fourth consecutive month. (See table A-1.)
Persons Not in the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)
The number of persons who were marginally attached to the labor force was
1.5 million in May, about the same as a year earlier. (Data are not season-
ally adjusted.) These individuals wanted and were available to work and had
looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as
unemployed, however, because they did not actively search for work in the 4
weeks preceding the survey. There were 476,000 discouraged workers in May,
also about the same as a year earlier. Discouraged workers, a subset of the
marginally attached, were not currently looking for work specifically because
they believed no jobs were available for them. The other 1.1 million margin-
ally attached had not searched for work for reasons such as school or family
responsibilities. (See table A-13.)
Today's transcript.
Click on the title above to expand this document.
Today's transcript.
Click on the title above to expand this document.
Final comments on June 4 trade setups:
CKFR
CKFR is the best performer on an closing basis from the setup list. Since its a test of top / break out, recommend moving stops to the days low 31.60 or break even.
YHOO
DELL (short)
DELL triggered the short setup although did not push down enough to set a new down swing. Protective stops should be moved down to 35.55 or better.
YHOO
YHOO long entry is triggered off the two bar retracement in an upswing and ends with a doji candle - a sign of indecision. With this formation we need to be on guard against a one-day wonder - a single up bar before a continued retracement. Move protective stops up to 31.45.
DAL (short)
DAL just reached the short trigger but offered no follow through. Move protective stop to 5.90 and be prepared to exit.