Wednesday, June 9, 2004
Issue Contents:
| 08:57 | Good morning Pre-market review. |
| 09:15 | The Day Ahead Economic Releases |
| 09:42 | Strategies Subscribers New feature. |
| 14:03 | Futures Rollover Stock index futures rollover Thursday. |
| 16:11 | Symbol Scans Wednesday June 9 closing data. |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Active Trader Today's transcript. |
| 21:46 | Swing Trade Setups Selections from Wednesday June 9 closing data |
Good morning. On this day in history, Secretariat won the Triple Crown.
With stock futures down marginally, we can expect a flat to slightly down opening, still leaving price within easy distance of attempting a test of the prior intraday high. On Tuesday, all major indices closed near the highs of the day.
Looking at the indices, we see our old friend the Expansion, Range Contraction, Expansion pattern at work. We've discussed this possibility a number of times over the past few weeks.
The Dow 30 panel has been marked up to show the potential extent of the pattern. We can also observe that the SPX, DOW and NYSE Composite indexes have been in unbroken up swings for weeks here.
Our strategy today for existing positions should be to raise stops appropriate to our goals; and look for pauses or retracement in up swings on which to find new long entries - bearing in mind that the end of this move is more likely getting nearer all the time. If a failed test of top sets up intraday, we'll want to take profits and do a 180 degree reversal in outlook, or at least stand aside for a time.
US Market Calendar
- 7:00 am - Mortgage Applications Survey
- 11:00 am - Consumer Comfort Index
- 1:30 pm - Treasury refunding, part 1.
Canadian Market Calendar
- Real return bond auction
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
Strategies for Success subscribers can now access the intraday chat transcript. The transcript log is updated every two minutes. If you find yourself joining TrendVue Trader Talk late in the day, you can catch up on what has transpired at: http://www.trendvue.com/transcript - book mark it!
Reminder: ES/SP, NQ/ND, YM/DJ stock index futures move to the September contract as of tomorrow, Thursday June 10th.
Wednesday June 9 closing data.
Click on the title above to expand this document.
Today's transcript.
Click on the title above to expand this document.
Today's transcript.
Click on the title above to expand this document.
Featured setups from Wednesday June 9 closing data symbol scan.
Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups | Special Situations
Long Setups
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
Premise: This next series of charts all have the same pattern - break out of some congestion with an expansion bar, and a 1-2 day pause near the expansion bar's high.
The setup: we are looking for the past 1-2 days to act as a small pause before a resumption of upward movement.
The
trade will tend to work if the market firms up here Thursday. What we
are looking for price to do, if stopped into the trade, is to quickly
push up to the expansion day's high and beyond.
CSCO
Long entry: buy stop 23.81
Protective stop if filled: 23.47
NXTL
Long entry: buy stop 24.31
Protective stop if filled: 23.93
AES
Long entry: buy stop 9.52
Protective stop if filled: 9.31
UIS
Long entry: buy stop 13.84
Protective stop if filled: 13.62
BAX
Long entry: buy stop 32.67
Protective stop if filled: 32.28
MERQ
Long entry: buy stop 49.21
Protective stop if filled: 48.50
ADCT
Long entry: buy stop 2.71
Protective stop if filled: 2.60
FNM
Long entry: buy stop 69.68
Protective stop if filled: 68.95
Test of Top
Not all test of tops are destined to fail. Its true that these are our favorite short entries, but we also remember that early on in an apparent failed test of top, minor retracements may well give rise to a surprise retest and break out of the high. We'll monitor a few for this possibility.
CHKP
Long entry: buy stop 25.88
Protective stop if filled: 25.11
RHI
Long entry: buy stop 30.03
Protective stop if filled: 29.42
Short Setups
Most symbols in the scan list are one or two days into a minor decline - if the decline picks up steam we might find something intraday to caboose a trade.
Test of Top
We can put CHKP and RKI in this category, although they have already triggered a short as of Wednesday. Long or short, charts of this nature are worth stalking for a day or so.
Special Situations
MRK
Premise: MRK is building a ledge right at a test of top. On the weekly chart we see MRK has built a sizable triangle - what we don't know as yet is which way it will break and hold.
Long setup: On break of Wednesday's harami high, go long. Since its a test of top, failure to hold a break out can result in a quick reversal, which may open short possibilities in MRK. Recommend intraday traders only attempt entries in MRK here.
XLNX pulled back into the triangle - like a test of top, its valid to lurk over this first bar with a buy stop in case price can push straight back out.
Long entry: 36.60
Protective stop if filled: 35.64