Tuesday, July 13, 2004
Issue Contents:
| 08:47 | The Day Ahead Economic Releases |
| 09:30 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Tuesday July 13 |
| 11:11 | Quick Take: Gold And U.S. Dollar advances. |
| 15:45 | Office Depot offers to recycle old PCs Clean out that basement! |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Morning Trader Today's transcript. |
| 18:12 | Symbol Scanner Results Tuesday July 13th closing data. |
Good Morning.
INTC reports after the close today; overnight trade in Asia was under some pressure due to oversupply concerns. Qualcomm Inc. on Tuesday said it set a two-for-one stock split and raised its quarterly dividend by 40 percent.1
And it turns out that a number of Microsoft products are subject to the same type of security vulnerability as the one reported (and fixed in 24 hours) for the Mozilla family of Web browsers last week.2
US Market Calendar
- 8:30 a.m. International trade for May
- 9 a.m. ICSC-UBS Weekly Chain Store Sales Snapshot for the week ended July 10
- 9 a.m. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index for the week ended July 10, vs. June
- 2 p.m. Federal budget for June FY ‘04
Canadian Market Calendar
- 8:30 a.m. Merchandise Trade Balance – May
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
1 Qualcomm Sets 2-For-1 Split, Ups Dividend
2 Microsoft products also vulnerable to Mozilla flaw: MSN Messenger, Word could be affected
Featured setups from Monday July 12 closing data symbol scan
Before the Bell
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures reversed much of the initial sell off Monday – premarket futures show a marginally stronger opening but not with sufficient built-in conviction to arrest our concerns that listless trade may be what we face ahead of the INTC news release after the close.
More setups and observations will be posted in TrendVue Trader Talk. If you can't join us in the real time room, you can always access the transcript in semi-real time by visiting http://www.trendvue.com/transcript.
Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups | Special Situations
Long Setups
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
SU continues with the energy theme this morning, pausing after breaking above congestion. Buy stop 26.34, initial stop if filled: 25.97.
PDE offers a similar chart to SU, buy stop 17.36.
Test of Top
APA already has some short; its still within easy range of retesting the recent high. This is a multi-year high – manage any long side trade in APA closely until/unless price moves strongly above the recent high.
Short Setups
Retracement or Pause in Down Swing / Down Trend
MERQ sell alert at 43.94. Bear flag forming.
Special Situations
Energy Sector
Breakouts possible?
XLE Energy ETF.
OIH Oil Service ETF
Both appear primed to attempt a break out of congestion. Buy stop above yesterday’s high; initial stop yesterday’s low.
Following this mornings U.S. Trade numbers1, the U.S. Dollar is moving higher toward overhead resistance.
For the time being we have to keep our bias on the dollar negative while it continues to trend down on the dailiy chart. We’ll see how it behaves if it manages to reach the 20 period moving average which is lined up with overhead resistance at the last congestion zone. Anticipating at least some near term weakness in the dollar, following today’s move up, leads us to look for a long side entry in Gold.
Gold, continuing to move inversely with dollar trade2, is pulling back to an area of potential support – on this chart we can see price has remained on either side of the $400 dollar level since the end of May.
Looking through the charts of Gold stocks shows two broad categories -charts of sotcks like PDG and FCX are pulling back to what may be new support, following Gold fairly closely. They are also outperformers among the group:
Many others (CDE, ABX, etc.) have never escaped the congestion built up over the last two months.
We should expect to see some long-side setups form in a number of gold stocks within the next day or so. When it comes time to enter a trade, a useful strategy might be to select divide our risk capital assigned to this sector in half: Select one of the outperformers, and one of the better looking stocks in congestion.
1 Dollar Advances After Report Shows U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed
2 Gold futures back near one-week low
Office Depot offers to recycle old PCs
What a great idea from Office Depot – recycle your old electronics. Sure they get you in their stores, but you get to clear out some accumlated junk, and prevent industrial waste (many components within electronic items are quite toxic to the environment) from hitting your local landfill. Available at U.S. locations only.
NEW YORK – Don’t be so quick to toss out your old PCs, fax machines or digital cameras—office supply retailer Office Depot is partnering with Hewlett-Packard to offer recycling of one electronic product a day for free all through the summer. Details…
Today's transcript.
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Today's transcript.
Click on the title above to expand this document.
Tuesday July 13th closing data.
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