Friday, August 6, 2004
Issue Contents:
| 08:55 | Stock Scanner Results Data for Thursday August 5th close. |
| 09:31 | Good Morning Be careful what you wish for. |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Morning Trader Today's transcript. |
| 19:25 | Stock Scanner Results Friday August 6 data. |
Data for Thursday August 5th close.
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Be careful what you wish for, you may get it goes the famous saying.
Traders have long wished for a market that simply trends, rather than bumps and grinds along. Investors have been looking for rationale to explain continued market weakness.
Oil1 continues to hit new highs2, on jitters about the security of supply. Yukos and a fire at a Texas oil refinery office building3 are fueling speculation.
Sick of hearing about oil, oil, oil, investors this morning have new demons to face. Outpacing oil as today’s market mover, this morning’s Employment Situation report4 showing job growth far weaker than expected, including downward revisions to prior reports, has pushed futures sharply lower before the open.
After highlighting QQQ, SPY and DIA as short trades on Wednesday there isn’t much for us to do now except watch for signs of reversal and decide when to take profits. Lets look at the big picture charts here:
Futures indicate that all secondary targets are going to be hit this morning – for all but Nasdaq that means a retest of July’s lows is the next big test. As price pushes through these levels, a great number of stops will be run – it may be a time to take profits on our short trade.
For those who would like to hold in the hopes of a much larger short developing out of this price action, the weekly chart is your guide:
Here you can see that nothing but air sits under price – uncharted territory on the “right-hand side of the mountain”. The fibbonaci ruler is our guide here – the retracement percentage levels plus the downtrend channel show a potential target. Please remember, technical analysis is not about forecasting price!
At minimum, those short the market need to have stops at break even or better. Please tune into the site today for market updates and further analysis, our on-line chat TrendVue Trader Talk, or check out the live transcript for more discussion.
1 LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices have hit record highs, climbing close to $45, after a renewed threat to Russian oil major and a big refinery fire in the United States added to the strain on world supplies.
2 LONDON (Guardian) – Oil prices today hit yet another 21-year high despite the stated willingness of Opec to boost production. In London, the cost of a barrel of Brent crude hit $41.35, the highest level since trading started in 1988. The AA has warned motorists to expect petrol to remain above 80p a litre for the “foreseeable future” as a result of recent increases in the price of crude.
5 TEXAS CITY, Texas (AP) – A blaze that gutted most of a Marathon Ashland refinerys main office building has displaced about 40 employees at the facility.
4 NEW YORK (Bloomberg) – Employers added 32,000 workers to payrolls in July, just an eighth of the number forecast and adding to evidence that a slowdown in economic growth may extend into the third quarter. Job gains also were revised lower for the preceding two months, to 78,000 for June and 208,000 in May, or 61,000 less than originally stated, the Labor Department said in Washington.
Today's transcript.
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Today's transcript.
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Friday August 6 data.
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