Tuesday, September 7, 2004
Issue Contents:
| 08:39 | Stock Scanner Results for Friday September 3 |
| 08:51 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news. |
| 09:25 | Swing Trade Setups ETF Special Report |
| 09:50 | Reminder Tune into TrendVue Trader Talk |
| 12:17 | Intraday Update NDX, SPX |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
| 16:18 | Stock Scanner Results For Tuesday September 7 |
for Friday September 3
Click on the title above to expand this document.
Good morning.
Fall, or optimism, seems to be in the air. Kids return to school all over North America today, and traders are heading back to their desks from beaches, golf courses and campgrounds everywhere.
Of note for today, overnight news from Saudia Arabia1 pushes oil commodity prices down hard. Lehman Brothers downgraded the semiconductor sector; Seagate reported improving results and earnings related news is starting to appear once more. Welcome to pre-announcement season.
Up on deck tomorrow, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan testifies (10:30 am) before the House Budget Commitee, and the Federal Reserve “Beige Book” report on the Economy is released.
US Market Calendar
- 10:00 am: Challenger Job-Cut Report
- 11:00 am: 4-Week Bill Announcement
- 1:00 pm: 3-Month, 6-Month Bill Auction
- 1:00 pm: Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert McTeer gives a status report on the U.S. economy.
- 3:00 pm: Treasury STRIPS
Canadian Market Calendar
- 8:30 am: Building Permits for July
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
1 U.S. Oil Falls After Saudi Cuts - SINGAPORE (Reuters) – U.S. oil prices fell on Tuesday after top exporter Saudi Arabia deeply cut prices for its crude sales to Europe and the United States to shift the large volumes it is offering to cool world markets.
Morning Notes
First up today, lets look at the major Exchange Traded Funds – we’ll follow up with stock-specific picks after the first hour of trade today.
Pre-open futures point to an open strong enough to challenge Friday’s highs fairly quickly – we are going to find out if buyers are “sold” on the prospect of higher equity prices early on today.
QQQ – Nasdaq 100 tracking ETF offers us a down bar, just under a 2B Test of the swing high, above which we can lurk with a buy stop order to capture a direct move up and out of this price area. Buy stop 34.68, initial protective stop if filled: 34.05.
Price is in the process of confirming support – if price can move up where a higher swing low and high will be seen to be confirmed which in itself may pull other investors in. Do keep in mind that all tests of tops can be played bi-directionally – there are some folks who got short on Friday as a result of an apparent failed test of top. Quite likely price may grind away a bit here and confound both longs and shorts.
SPY – S&P 500 tracking ETF made a higher high and low on Friday, offering no clean entry on the daily chart.
DIA – like SPY, the Dow Jones 30 tracking ETF made an “up bar” on Friday, following the strong break out from the prior swing high.
Both DIA and SPY demonstrate “rising wedges” – an ascending consolidation pattern that has as a target, if a break down occurs, the base of the wedge. We can make a case for a rising wedge in QQQ as well. Dogmatic folks look at such constructs and make the mistake of assuming that price will move to the target, however the unbiased technical analyst simply looks for possibilities.
To us, a consolidation pattern is a consolidation pattern – a pause – and when price leaves the pause, it often does so with gusto. Up or down, we don’t really care. Since daily and weekly charts point up, we continue accept the upward bias of the market until proven otherwise.
Tune into TrendVue Trader Talk – stock specific picks will be presented and discussed all morning. Join us live using our Java chat software or follow along using the almost-live transcript.
Using Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 as our proxies:
NQ – Nasdaq futures are closing in on test of the day’s high, but still short of Friday’s high. Aggressive swing traders looking to get an early jump on a QQQ long trade may consider going long QQQ if the NQ test of top passes, provided one accepts that entering within the range adds to risk.
ES – S&P 500 futures are closing in on the 2 day high.
In today’s Swing Trade Setups We preferred QQQ over SPY since the down bar on Friday’s QQQ chart gives a usable point of reference for a buy stop order just above Friday’s high; price action on Friday also suggests there are some newly minted shorts, which should, if the test of Friday’s high comes through and passes, provide fuel for a move up from here.
At this point no ETF trades are yet triggered.
Today's transcript.
Click on the title above to expand this document.
For Tuesday September 7
Click on the title above to expand this document.