Thursday, October 20, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 09:25 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news |
| 09:33 | Trendvue Trader Talk Schedule |
| 09:41 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Thursday October 20 |
| 09:50 | Futures: YM Road map for the day |
| 15:41 | Market Direction Afternoon Update |
| 15:47 | Trendvue Trader Talk Update |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
Good morning, today is Thursday October 20th, the 293rd day of 2005.
Initial jobless claims fell by 35,000 this week, although claims in regions affected by the hurricane have not yet peaked. Before the market stock index futures are off slightly, following weaker than hoped for news out of Pfizer and EBAY. Some pull back after the strong run up yesterday is to be expected, we’ll look for higher levels of support to build, or fail to build, for our next cue.
US Market Calendar
- 8:30 am: Initial Claims – Oct. 15th week1
- 10:00 am: Leading Indicators – Sep.
- 12:00 pm: Philadelphia Fed Index – Oct.
- 1:10 pm: Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Jack Guynn to speak about the U.S. economic outlook, in Atlanta, Georgia.
- 7::00 pm: Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker to speak about “Interest Rate Policy after Greenspan”
Canadian Market Calendar
- 10:30 am: BoC Monetary Policy Report
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
1 Initial jobless claims fall by 35,000
Status report:
- last night our new chat server came back up and appears to be working
- the chat software itself is proving problematic; I shut down working in the middle of the night with some progress being made but it seems some browser clients are having a hard time connecting – please try; I’ll cross my fingers.
- we’ll hold the door open for the first couple hours and for the last 2 hours of the day today; in between these times Mike will be working on the transition to the new platform.
While all this has been going on I’ve been burning the midnight oil getting a release of our new web and chat environment up and running – not quite ready for deployment yet but we are getting close on that front. I’ll be nice to jettison the old and now unsupported Java chat software.
An abbreviated list; we shall look at other ideas as the day progresses. Once this week is through and the last of our technical issues are resolved we’ll be back to a regular schedule.
Check the “outliers” and “hammers” section for your favourites: http://www.trendvue.com/latestscan
Long
XLE energy sector etf – can it move higher a second day now…
DO – and other energy service companies. Its possible that yesterday’s hammers will ultimatel fail to hold, but they appear to have been made on some amount of vigor and the potential for a range bottom to have now been set can not be dismissed. You’ll find charts like DO across the sector.
APA, and other producers, all tend to have charts lke this. There’s sufficient room for a bounce – all that is required for a 5% move up from here is some coincident stabilization in the price of oil and gas.
NT, and other techs with useful charts. Keep in mind that gaps are often the end of a swing, and that tells us only play and hold NT if it powers up from here and doesn’t look back.
GNSS
CREE – this really needs to push higher and soon.
!
Yesterday movement really picked up following the release of the Fed Beige Book; now that all the major targets off the two week lows have been hit on an intraday basis, the key question is whether 10390 now holds as lasting support or not.
YM 135M chart
Aggressive sellers will be looking for opportunities at the retest of yesterday’s high 10451; however now the tables have turned a little, and the dominant trend, intraday, is up, not down, so any counter trend trades (shorts) need to be a) done only at points of potential failure or b) once a clear trend down has re-emerged, if at all.
For the rest of us, we’ll want to be stalking retracements when price is trending, and key tests like yesterday’s high.
Key levels:
- resistance 10450 (yesterday’s highs) and then 10540, 10640
- support ideally 10390 will hold today, and easily so; 10325 must hold for this move up to have a good chance at continuation.
All morning long we were waiting for the inevitable clunk; once price failed to carry on from yesterday’s highs, chop and/or a retracement of at least 50% of the prior day’s range becomes ever more likely.
The market delivered both.
Now the question of the week is: will price regain key support, now again resistance, near 10380? If so, THEN we’ll want to be more agressive on the long side.
And if not, particularly if price is unable to even turn this afternoon’s “breakout” near 10325 into support once more, then we can look forward to another leg down tomorrow.
While its in the big “O”... caution / back off / wait for the dust to settle shall be my plan.
Our chat software has kicked it here today; we are still looking into what is causing this or if problems left over from last week are still at work. Rather than continuing to knock our heads against this issue, I’ve made the executive decision to push forward our new web application deployment, which includes a new chat facility that is not dependent on Digichat -- the Java based application we’ve been using so far with great success, until this time.
Either way we’ll be up and running and stable, Murphy-willing, for next week. More updates as they are known.
Today's transcript.
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