TrendVue :: Archive

Tuesday, October 4, 2005
Issue Contents:

08:56	The Day Ahead Economic releases and news
09:02	Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Tuesday October 4
16:15	TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript.

The Day Ahead

Good morning, today is Tuesday October 4th, the 277th day of 2005.

Lexmark is set to open dramatically higher, Asian stocks moved higher on chip outlook². Before the open, Crude is down over 1 percent while natural gas is holding on to its strength so far, up 1/4 percent. Stock index futures are trading more or less unchanged.

Trendvue Schedule Today: Mike will be off sick for most of today.

US Market Calendar

7:45 am: ICSC-UBS Store Sales¹
8:55 am: Redbook – Oct. 1st week
10:00 am: Factory Orders – August
1:45 pm: Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher speaks in Dallas; topic: U.S. economic outlook

Canadian Market Calendar

No scheduled releases

Earnings and the Federal Reserve

For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.

For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.

¹ Chain store sales bounce – ICSC

² Asian Stocks Advance on Chip Outlook

^ 05.10.04 08:56 #

Swing Trade Setups

Featured setups from Monday October 3, 2005 closing data symbol scan http://www.trendvue.com/latestscan

Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups | Special Situations

Notes for the Day

Schedule: I’m on the mend but am still recovering from some bug which has settled in my chest; after two boughts of pneumonia in the past 5 years I know I have to knock this back aggressively, so I’ll be heading off for rest sometime after the first hour or so this morning.
Markets have held up remarkably well in the face of high energy prices

ETFS

If contination of yesterday’s move sets in early on, then stalking shorts at yesterday ‘s low, or the two day low, above the rising trendilne, is the next play for swing traders of ETFs or remain in cash. Ultimately if this bounce fully resolves to target, the two week lows are in view.

DIA

SPY

XLE – different story in energy ETF, still some upside potential.

Long Setups

General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.

Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend

PD – as long as copper keeps going up, so will PD

N / N:C – Nickel remains in short supply. hold only on a solid close.

Golds are posed to move – there has been some strength in the sector and the USD still has not broken down but is in or is approaching major tests with the EUR, JPY, CAD. Stocks may move in advance; use caution and stops just in case. Note some also benefit more than others from high copper prices, which usually explains chart discrepancies; others are more highly levered to Gold itself.

ABX – Gold

NEM – Gold

HMY – Gold

GFI – Gold, almost a parabolic climb lately, extra caution, or stalk a big cap conservative name like ABX

CCJ / CCO:C – energy (uranium)

Energy – please note the caution here, and apply to the sector as a whole:

DVN – producer

RIG – drilling services, one of the bigger and in high demand world wide

CAM – equipment supplies to the sector

BHI – services

Test of Top – Continuation

EMR – 52 week high retest, minor down bar in up swing. Probably getting some hurricane-related biz.

Short Setups

General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, place a sell alert at or just below the low of the setup bar, and look for the first failed intraday bounce after the low has been broken. What we are looking for is price to push down, bounce a little, and fail again – this is where we want to get short.