Monday, November 14, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 09:49 | The Day Ahead Nearing big tests... caution. |
| 10:08 | Client Notice Status |
Whenever the market gets near a test of a prior major high, we need to keep one foot outside the exit door, for very often markets will rally near but not quite to the prior significant high and then fail, again.
Primary market indexes, daily
A Dow 30 rally above nearby resistance could help in supporting the on-going rallies in other markets – Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes are not far off their 52 week highs here.
We can never know whether a single down day will later develop into the turning point in a rally such as this – picking the original top was much easier – so the only way to play the market is divvy up positions and scale out in parts; take some off the table on weakness, and add to positions again on dips, once price starts to climb again.
Since our bias remains in the camp of more up, I’ll be trailing stops on 1/4 and 1/2 size positions (depending on the individual stock and its relative strength) a little looser than I would otherwise.
Market Laggards
SGP – short – stalking a short under this bear flag; high volume of late is not characteristic of a bear flag, so it will not surprise me to see SGP make a minor move down and set up a potential failed bear flag trigger (long) setup for tomorrow.
XOM
XLE – energy sector ETF – aggressive traders will be stalking energy above Friday’s inside bars (either in the ETF or individual names); no one will be too surprised if price again weakens though – take profits along the way. Less aggressive folks will want to wait until price climbs above the rising trendline noted here on XLE – if indeed it can – and then stalk a buy setup off a retracement.
Over the past few weeks (months?) I’ve been struggling to juggle too many balls at once; truth be told that’s been going on for many months, although to some degree I’ve been able to hold it all together until discovering this month that there are indeed limits to human endurance. Known to a few of you, my family has been dealing with serious illness for sometime, and this has added another dimension to the daily chores and certainly contributes to emotional stress in our household.
An already bad situation has been made worse by my imposing workload – running Trendvue, writing and trading all day, doing analysis / scans / stock picks, programming, administration and what have you by night. I’m not that good a juggler it seems, as I’ve dropped the ball on what I enjoy most, educating, and developing new trading tools.
Its clear to me that some changes need to be made, but its not yet clear to me exactly what changes to make. This week I’ll put together a plan of action and communicate with everyone for your feedback.
I appreciate your support and patience.