Wednesday, November 16, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 09:12 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news |
| 09:42 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Wednesday November 16 |
Good morning, today is Wednesday November 16th, the 320th day of 2005 – just 45 days left in the year.
In October, consumer prices rose at their slowest pace in the past quarter, with headline and core numbers edging up only 0.2% last month.1
Gold is up over 1 percent this morning; so too is the US dollar, which is trading below but not far from its recent highs following the foreign capital inflows report this morning. Natural gas is, so far, undergoing a little rally with price up some 2 percent; Crude is trading near yesterday’s close.
US Market Calendar
- 8:30 am: Consumer Price Index – Oct.1
- 8:30 am: Business Inventories – Sep.
- 9:00 am: Foreign Purchases of U.S. Securities – Sep.
- 10:30 am: EIA Petroleum Weekly Status Report
- 1:00 pm: NAHB Housing Index – Nov.
- 2:00 pm: Daily MMS Gulf of Mexico Shut-in Report
- 3:00 pm: Daily DOE Office of Energy Reliability Situation Report
Canadian Market Calendar
- No releases scheduled
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
1 U.S. Oct. Consumer Prices Rise 0.2%; Core Up 0.2%
Using YM futures as our guide for support and resistance:
YM 15M
- Yesterday’s attempt to break out of resistance near 10730 has failed, so far, but price did not break down so much as to put continuation of this rally out of the question.
- Certainly we can make a case for stalking shorts under 10700, particularly if price heads under 10680 ( under yesterday’s lows ) – then start stalking weak bounces to sell short.
- Don’t dismiss the potential for continuation higher – simple retracements above 10730 should be used to stalk long opportunities, and do endeavor to stay out of chop between 10690 and 10720.
Long
Gold: Keep an eye on these names in case the US ends up weakening following its initial run higher this morning.
NEM
ABX – setup suggests a retest of the recent lows before anything but for one day following the trigger I like to watch for bear flag / rising wedge trigger failures.
Misc
AMTD
SWY – potential selling exhaustion lately; this is the first retracement since. Must close strong to hold.
CSX – railway transport – when oil starts creeping up the transports are likely to weaken – still, there’s a decent trend underway and potential for a breakout above. Watching.
KLIC – semi space – often price chops around between T1 and T2 (20/50 period EMA) after a long sell-off – will only give this one chance.
MRO, TSO, VLO have similar charts – the opportunity here is to stalk the highs of the last couple of days and attempt to catch any breakout by buying the first pause or retracement, with caution. Price doesn’t always fully retrace to the prior low after a sharp sell-off, but it might yet.
Short
Follow Up
SGP – This is a heads up on an open trade, following up on the short setup noted earlier this week – this one needs to head lower quickly today or its time to exit – a narrow range day below key support is a potential turnaround in the making. Aggressive traders might want to take a long above yesterday’s high…