Monday, November 21, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 08:34 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news |
| 08:57 | Client Notice Update |
| 09:15 | Gold Update Including swing trades |
Good morning, today is Monday November 21, the 325th day of 2005.
This week is likely to be choppy and somewhat aimless, as there is little economic news of market-moving importance on the calendar for this week, and US markets will be closed on Thursday, with additional early closings on Wednesday (bonds) and Friday (NYSE and bonds).
Market Statistics for Friday November 18, 2005
| Symbols in Up Swings | 567 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 104 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 5.45 : 1 |
| Up Bars | 70% |
| Down Bars | 12% |
| Inside Bars | 8% |
| Outside Bars | 8% |
| Close > 20EMA | 59% |
| Close > 50SMA | 67% |
| Close > 200SMA | 65% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 40% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 17% |
US Market Calendar
- 10:00 am: Leading Indicators – October
Canadian Market Calendar
- 8:30 am: Retail Sales – Sep.
I said last week that it was ”clear to me that some changes need to be made, but its not yet clear to me exactly what changes to make”. I’d hoped to have sorted this out and have a plan of action in your hands by now but its taken longer than I expected.
Since Friday’s unplanned absence I’ve managed to organize my thoughts and look at what’s most important and I expect to have a go-forward plan available before the holiday weekend starts in earnest.
Lets do a quick update on currencies and gold:
EURUSD as we discussed recently has been consolidating under its latest range – a reversal here – one that makes nearby overhead resistance support once again – will tend to be bullish for Gold.
Gold – last week’s breakout above October’s highs brought the shiny yellow metal to new multi-year highs. We can see that volume and speed have picked up – ADX has turned up sharply, reminding us that this is a directional market. If price pulls back for a day or two we’ll still expect that the dominant direction – up – supports price.
Should gold weaken and pull back within the range, I’ll still be looking for long-side opportunities in the sector provided price holds above last Wednesday’s low.
Swing Trades
If one didn’t take advantage of the swing trade ideas on NEM and ABX posted on November 16, we need to be looking for the first pause to attempt to join a rising / breaking out market. Friday provided a down bar in still-intact up-swings across much of the sector so we should be on the hunt for entry possibilities this morning.
ABX
NEM
GG, KGC and the like have similar charts.
HMY has an even stronger chart, having broken out of its most recent upper-most range as of Nov 11th. There was, however, no reasonable opportunity off the daily chart to get in this name, until now.