Thursday, February 10, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 03:56 | Swing Scanner Results Wednesday February 9th closing data. |
| 03:58 | Market Statistics For Wednesday February 9, 2005 |
| 13:29 | The Day Behind |
| 13:39 | The Big IF |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
| 21:09 | Swing Scanner Results Thursday February 10th closing data. |
| 21:11 | Market Statistics For Thursday February 10, 2005 |
Wednesday February 9th closing data.
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Statistics for Wednesday February 9, 2005
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 282 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 483 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 0.58 : 1 |
| Advancers | 15% |
| Decliners | 83% |
| Unchanged | 2% |
| Up Bars | 19% |
| Down Bars | 55% |
| Inside Bars | 9% |
| Outside Bars | 12% |
| Close > 20EMA | 16% |
| Close > 50SMA | 44% |
| Close > 200SMA | 62% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 41% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 19% |
Good afternoon – I’ve had a little bit of a late start today after a far-too-late night working on projects.
All day we’ve been leaning to the long side, which I’m sure early in the morning seemed crazy to some, but its the right decision and I think we’ll see that soon.
Our musing on gold and speculation in same is also paying off – after stopping into trades yesterday, closing with sufficient profit to hold, gold names are generally higher this morning thanks largely to US Dollar reaction to trade balance news.
More later.
This is what I’ve been anticipating all morning:
11:00:22 Mike: IF NQ can possibly manage my bet is that it turns into a V bottom day.
- and so far, so good, not just on Nasdaq but across the board. A big attempt to try to push price back up through resistance into the range above, which will turn this red overhead line of resistance into new green line of support:
Anticipating this all day, and looking for any location where sellers could turn into fuel for a move higher, I found an ideal surprise long entry before the sudden and dramatic push up occured.
It should be noted that this trade was most certainly not a “classic” and not the sort of trade approach or setup which we hammer home day in, day out. But, armed with some profits from earlier trades and a good instinct for traps, I’m allowed to venture afield once in a while! :-D
Long YM 10706 with break even stop now, NQ 1509 also with a break even stop, there is now sufficent safety in the trade profit to ride out any noise chopping about while the market decides if it really does have the ability to power back up into the ranges above and most importantly hold there.
Scalpers would be looking to exit some or all of the position; but personally I’m looking for an entry position for a multiple day (or week) trade and am willing to give up potential profits in order to hold on to what may be an ideal entry spot.
There is, of course, still plenty of reason to remain cautious. Nasdaq new lows expanded once again today, and new highs continued to contract. Price is bumping up into resistance and if its going to fail it will be here and soon. In particular Nasdaq internals have remained on the weak side all day (although far stronger than yesterday) and COMPX itself has a large hill to climb to erase yesterday’s very significant losses.
IF price fails to hold into the ranges above (ES, YM in particular) then sellers will again be emboldened (through fear or other motivations) and markets would likely extend Wednesday’s losses anew. In technology, all but nimble intraday traders will want to wait for tomorrow before getting aggressively long.
There are always “IFs” in this business, which is why we trade aggressively when it makes sense, and move to a break-even stop position as soon as the trade will allow. This gives us the pleasure of being able to sit back and watch the rest of the market slug it out.
Today's transcript.
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Thursday February 10th closing data.
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Statistics for Thursday February 10, 2005
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 232 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 533 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 0.43 : 1 |
| Advancers | 54% |
| Decliners | 44% |
| Unchanged | 2% |
| Up Bars | 24% |
| Down Bars | 56% |
| Inside Bars | 13% |
| Outside Bars | 4% |
| Close > 20EMA | 54% |
| Close > 50SMA | 47% |
| Close > 200SMA | 61% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 37% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 22% |