Thursday, February 17, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 08:01 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news. |
| 08:04 | Swing Scanner Results Wednesday February 16th closing data. |
| 08:05 | Market Statistics For Wednesday February 16, 2005 |
| 09:25 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Thursday Feb 17th |
| 10:17 | Random Charts |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
Good morning, on this the 48th day of 2005. On deck today again is Fed Chairman Greenspan being questioned by House representatives for several hours this morning; the Philly Fed index at 12 is also a closely watched measure which occasionally moves markets.
Hot on the heels of Chairman Greenspan’s testimony yesterday where he stated that import prices are unlikely to remain as contained as in recent past, today’s import prices index rose 0.9%, the first rise in three months.1
US Market Calendar
- 8:30 am: Trade Price Indices – Jan.1
- 8:30 am: Initial Claims – Feb. 12th week
- 10:00 am: Leading Indicators – Jan.
- 10:00 am: Fed chairman Alan Greenspan speaks on the Semmiannual Report on Monetary Policy and responds to questions from members of the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee
- 12:00 pm: Philadelphia Fed Index – Feb.
Canadian Market Calendar
- 8:30 am: International Securities Transactions – Dec.
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
1 U.S. January Import Prices Rise 0.9%; Ex-Petroleum Up 0.2%
Wednesday February 16th closing data.
Click on the title above to expand this document.
Statistics for Wednesday February 16, 2005
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 436 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 329 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 1.32 : 1 |
| Advancers | 0% |
| Decliners | 0% |
| Unchanged | 100% |
| Up Bars | 29% |
| Down Bars | 44% |
| Inside Bars | 14% |
| Outside Bars | 8% |
| Close > 20EMA | 46% |
| Close > 50SMA | 54% |
| Close > 200SMA | 66% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 43% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 18% |
Featured setups from Wednesday February 16, 2005 closing data symbol scan
Jump to: Long Setups
Notes for the Day
Signs continue to suggest that the market is holding recent support therefore for now all our suggested charts are long-side trades.
I actually have more concern about on-going oil-industry positions than the broad market, but I always get a little anxious when everyone talks up a particular sector. For the time being I’m raising profit taking stops for either 1/2 or the total position (depending on stock or ETF) to just under the latest tall up bar.
The rise in energy stocks is not a big surprise to us here, as we’ve been following the building support in Crude for some time now. The trickier task now is how to maximize our profits – with some names now well over 30% depending on entry point, and in a very short period of time, and even very recent entries showing > 10% returns in mere days, we have to be ready to take at least some off the table on any significant weakness.
If markets to deteriorate today we’ll want to take some profits in recent ETF buys, and perhaps consider a short. More on that later if such events should transpire.
Long Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
BJ – retail, hold only if price clears Tuesday’s high during the day, and closes above or near that level.
Semis: Plenty of “1 day pause in up swing” charts here:
SMH – Semi industry ETF
INTC
BRCM
Tech manufacturing
JBL
CLS – I’m still holding this from earlier in the week with my initial stop. moving up to yesterday’s low today. Also offers another attempt at entry but far from clean.
FLEX – showed more strength than the rest of the group earlier this year, may possibly avoid refilling the gap. If price does move through the trigger its a sign that new, higher, support is holding.
Other tech
CSCO – beaten up as it is, may provide greater upside if Nasdaq can fully kick into gear, at least offers a safer entry location here above the narrow range down bar.
The US Dollar index, weekly, is a clear indication of the decision point in world currency markets:
Does it overcome important resistance overhead, or drop to hit the recent lows, potentially failing a test there and completing the rest of the measured move to sub-80 levels.
Gold futures, showing our entry in the sector last week, and another opportunity today after a pause following a trendline breakout:
(Our gold swing trade picks are up 5, 7.6, and > 10% since)
Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Dow 30 Futures, showing near by resistance overhead and initial targets IF resistance is broken and becomes new support:
Note that price has been trading in a relatively tight range now for a number of days:
The lows of these trading ranges are now the most important level of support, and if price begins to trade and trend below these levels, the intermediate trend will have changed from up to down, until proven otherwise.
Crude, confounding so many, after making 45 the new major level of support may now have made 46.50, perhaps even 48 dollars, the new level of support – more than 10$ above what most analysts have been predicting for months:
Today's transcript.
Click on the title above to expand this document.