Wednesday, February 2, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 08:58 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news. |
| 08:59 | Swing Scanner Results Tuesday Feb 1 closing data. |
| 10:42 | Swing Trade Setups Pre-FOMC is a time to slow down and smell the... |
| 11:39 | Targets Reached |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
| 23:50 | Swing Scanner Results Wednesday Feb 2nd closing data. |
| 23:52 | Market Statistics For Wednesday February 2nd. |
Good morning, today is Wednesday February 3rd, the 33rd day of 2005. How did 1/12th of the year disappear so quickly?
On an otherwise light day on the economic news calendar, markets and their traders are poised to mark a little time in advance of today’s FOMC interest rate policy announcement at 2:15 pm ET. But first at 10:30 we’ll get to see if the latest EIA Petroleum Inventory Report justifies the continued strength and resiliency crude has shown.
Also of note for this evening is the US President’s State of the Union Address at 9:00 pm ET.
US Market Calendar
- 7:00 am: MBA Purchase Applications
- 10:00 am: Challenger Layoff Report – Jan.
- 10:30 am: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- 2:15 pm: FOMC Announcement
- 3, 5 & 10-year note auction announcement
- 9:00 pm : President George W. Bush delivers annual State of the Union address to Congress .
Canadian Market Calendar
- 10-year bond auction
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
Tuesday Feb 1 closing data.
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In the hours before the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee announces their latest take on interest rate policy, I hunker down and trade less, or not at all. Trading just before and for some time after the 2:15 announcement tends to be wildly volatile, and many a trader will lose their shirts by trying risky strategies to game this. One word of advice: Don’t.
Frequently by the end of the day the outcome is not in the same direction as the minutes just after the announcement. Very often the following day chooses a different path as well, particularly if the language issued by the FOMC has changed—it seems the larger players need the time overnight to decide what cryptic Fed-speak means to them….
In the transcript of TrendVue Trader Talk (check the archives after 4:15pm for the full day permanent log) I shall be publishing ideas which may be useful after the announcement, or on the day following.
The Dow 30 have reached the target area identified after yesterday’s long-entry, and the S&P 500 is not far behind.
Both the Dow and S&P are getting close to pushing back into the upper most significant range. If these markets can achieve this and hold these levels, we will no doubt see an acceleration of buying interest as the perception will be that the all-clear horn has been sounded once again.
The big fly in the ointment is the Nasdaq. Where the NYA (NYSE Composite Index) has already regained and surpassed the January 19th highs which set the top of the last down leg, Nasdaq has not even regained 50% of that last drop. Perhaps Nasdaq can pick up steam if the broader market manages to regain the uppermost trading range, but if not, we should use that occasion as a caution for all markets, like a canary in a coal mine.
Today's transcript.
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Wednesday Feb 2nd closing data.
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Statistics for Wednesday February 2, 2005
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 566 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 199 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 2.84 : 1 |
| Advancers | 59% |
| Decliners | 39% |
| Unchanged | 2% |
| Up Bars | 52% |
| Down Bars | 22% |
| Inside Bars | 13% |
| Outside Bars | 7% |
| Close > 20EMA | 59% |
| Close > 50SMA | 49% |
| Close > 200SMA | 63% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 38% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 21% |