Tuesday, March 1, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 06:12 | Swing Scanner Results For Monday February 28th |
| 06:14 | Market Statistics For Monday February 28, 2005 |
| 09:11 | The Day Ahead Economic Releases and News |
| 09:22 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Tuesday March 1st |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
For Monday February 28th
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Statistics for Monday February 28, 2005
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 557 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 207 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 2.69 : 1 |
| Advancers | 17% |
| Decliners | 45% |
| Unchanged | 38% |
| Up Bars | 36% |
| Down Bars | 28% |
| Inside Bars | 13% |
| Outside Bars | 18% |
| Close > 20EMA | 29% |
| Close > 50SMA | 50% |
| Close > 200SMA | 62% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 41% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 19% |
Good morning on the first day of March and the 60th day of 2005.
Apparently the consumer is still alike and kicking, showing year over year sales growth in the latest week of 3.3 percent:
“Despite the tough comparison with year-ago sales growth, sales momentum was robust,” said Michael Niemira, ICSC’s chief economist and director of research. “Customer traffic remained healthy for the four-week fiscal month of February and finished on an impressively strong note.”1
The Bank of Canada – Canada’s central bank with a role akin to the US Federal Reserve – left the key overnight interest rates unchanged at 2 1/2 percent.2 Widely expected, its doubtful this decision will have much impact on the Canadian dollar which has been trading somewhat apart from other major currencies as of late.
US Dollar Index – currently bouncing to 82.83, Gold is under pressure off 3.70. Welcome to a potential failed bear flag at worst, or chop at best.
US Market Calendar
- 8:55 am: Redbook – Feb. 26th week1
- 10:00 am: ISM Manufacturing Index – Feb.
- 10:00 am: Construction Spending – Jan.
- 4:00 pm: Auto Sales – Feb.
Canadian Market Calendar
- 8:30 am: Industrial Product Price Index – Jan.
- 8:30 am: Raw Materials Price Index – Jan.
- 9:00 am: Bank of Canada Rate Policy Announcement2
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
1 Chain Stores Sales Rebound in Latest Week
2 Bank of Canada keeps target for the overnight rate at 2 1/2 per cent
Featured setups from Monday February 28, 2005 closing data symbol scan
Jump to: Long Setups | Special Situations
Notes for the Day
As discussed yesterday in Trader Talk, there are indeed quite a few charts showing a “single down bar in an still-intact upswing” – these can be ideal locations to lurk with a long, particularly at key times in the market and this is one of those times.
ETFs first then, to ensure we have exposure; and a few individual stocks as well. I’ll look for shorts later this morning if we need them.
Long Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.
Test of Bottom – Reversal
SONS – haven’t had a retest of bottom chart show up in a while. 3 Inside Up setup as well. Be sure its reported recently before deciding to hold at the close!
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
XLF – financials ETF – note the resistance immediately overhead – we want to see price push directly through and not look back.
QQQQ – tech ETF – the laggard but also with potential for appreciation.
Test of Top – Continuation
TSM
SPY – S&P 500 ETF – we can rightly call this a retest of top in progress over the past few days.
DIA – Dow 30 ETF – as per SPY
Special Situations
MWV – long – not the nicest looking chart around, important resistance overhead.
Today's transcript.
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