Thursday, March 10, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 08:50 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news. |
| 08:54 | Swing Scanner Results Wednesday March 9, 2005 closing data. |
| 08:57 | Market Statistics For Wednesday March 9, 2005 |
| 09:27 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Thursday March 10th. |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
Good morning, its Thursday March 10th, the 69th day of 2005.
In its regular interest rate policy update, without announcing the reasons why, the Bank of England held rates steady, now for the seventh month in a row.1
Yesterday’s Beige Book – a collection of anecdotes and evidence from Federal Reserve districts around the US – provided no real surprises although it does appear to underscore the possibility that inflation may be a bigger challenge to control than has been hinted at by the Fed in the past. (Release)
Economy expanding nicely, Fed says—Beige Books finds some evidence of price pressure
“The big picture for inflation is still benign, but the rumblings get a little louder with each succeeding Beige Book,” said Steve Stanley, an economist with RBS Greenwich Capital.
“Bottom line: The economy is not slowing down—if anything, momentum may be building. Inflation is not accelerating out of control, but the Fed’s projection of stable core consumer price inflation over the next 2 years is looking more and more like wishful thinking,” Stanley said.
US Jobless Claims hit their highest level in 2 months, nudging the 4 week average of claims up slightly from last weeks level which was the lowest in 4 years.
This evening Fed Chairman Greenspan and Governor Bernanke both speak, in the case of the latter on a subject of immediate importance to Dollar watchers everywhere, as tomorrow at 8:30 am ET we get the latest figures on international trade and current account deficit.
US Market Calendar
7:00 am: BOE Announcement1
8:30 am: Initial Jobless Claims – Mar. 5th week2
10:00 am: Wholesale Trade – Jan.
2:00 pm: Treasury Budget – Feb.
4:30 pm: Money Supply
6:15 pm: Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan to speak to the Council on Foreign Relations, topic: Globalization
8:00 pm: Federal Reserve Governor Ben Bernanke speaks to the Virginia Association of Economists, topic: U.S. current account gap
Canadian Market Calendar
8:30 am: Labour Productivity – Q4
8:30 am: Capacity Utilization – Q4
2-year bond auction announcement
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
1 BoE holds off on rates rise for now
2 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rose 17,000 Last Week to 327,000
Wednesday March 9, 2005 closing data.
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Statistics for Wednesday March 9, 2005
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 248 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 516 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 0.48 : 1 |
| Up Bars | 13% |
| Down Bars | 66% |
| Inside Bars | 9% |
| Outside Bars | 8% |
| Close > 20EMA | 22% |
| Close > 50SMA | 54% |
| Close > 200SMA | 62% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 47% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 21% |
Featured setups from Wednesday March 9, 2005 closing data symbol scan
Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups | Special Situations
Notes for the Day
- Its now or never time – price has to hold these levels and rise, or the entire rally will be called into question. Given INTC preview after the bell and Trade Deficit tomorrow 8:30 am, there is a good chance that today will grind along, although pre-market futures have managed to regain some ground so lets be ready for anything.
- Shorting market – we should let this topping process play out before getting very exposed on the short side. This is my personal plan at any rate, and if I head to net short, a note will be posted on the site as well as discussion in Trader Talk.
Thought for the day: following up on trade setups is very important, provided the basic premise remains valid. I let this one slip through my hands, and that happens from time to time, and I forgive myself because I’m covering many markets all day long.
CK – last highlighted in Friday swing trade setups
Lets keep alert!
Long Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
JBL – pause, first target is the test of top.
CLS – like JBL, also in the contract mftg space, bull flag forming. FLEX in that space is doing very poorly.
QCOM has so far bottomed and put in a higher swing high and low – pause to buy here.
Test of Top – Continuation
The topping process plays out, and while its still in play we have to be ready for continuation, just in case…
SPY
DIA
QQQQ
Short Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, place a sell alert at or just below the low of the setup bar, and look for the first failed intraday bounce after the low has been broken. What we are looking for is price to push down, bounce a little, and fail again – this is where we want to get short.
Test of Bottom – Continuation
IBM – stealth bear flag. We should also keep a close eye on the descending triangle and monitor the upper trendline for opportunity within the next few sessions.
Special Situations
MSFT – long – pause after a big push up. I personally don’t like trading MSFT due to the usual low volatility, but some like to hold the stock and here’s an opportunity.
Today's transcript.
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