Monday, March 14, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 09:19 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news |
| 09:21 | Schedule for the day Morning session |
| 09:28 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Monday March 14th |
| 10:54 | Market Direction Its now or never time |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
Good morning – its Monday March 14th, the 73rd day of 2005.
The economic calendar gets off to a slow start this week but quickly kicks into gear tomorrow with Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan testifying before a committee on Social Security, and Treasury International Capital investment flows receiving almost equal billing tomorrow, particularly among forex watchers. The US Dollar this morning is staging something of a bounce ahead of the TIC data tomorrow, rising on average half a percent, heading to overhead resistance:
Why care? Forex traders care, but If not trading Forex, there’s always Gold:
Dollar vs Gold, Weekly
US Market Calendar
- 3 & 6-month T-bill auction
1:30 pm (ET): San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Janet Yellen to speak about the U.S. economy & banking sector at a bankers conference in Hawaii.
Canadian Market Calendar
- 8:30 am: New Motor Vehicle Sales – Jan.
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
Good morning – I have to make an unplanned trip to my dentist this morning – I will be available in TrendVue Trader Talk until approximately 12:00 noon ET and then away for at least two hours.
Notes for the day:
Lets look through the past picks and see if any of the setups are still valid. Chances are many remain so…
Long
NEM, bull flag building – Golds may do nothing until tomorrows TIC data comes out. ABX triggered and pulled back Friday – it too can be watched with a long trigger/alert at Friday or the two day high.
DIA (also SPY, QQQQ) – swing traders should still monitor all the major index ETFs for long opportunities off the daily charts – if price firms, it will be obvious long before price hits the trigger.
IBM triggers the bear flag we’ve been following, short, last week – on this first day following only we should stalk a long above Friday’s high. This is a setup called a Bear Flag Trigger Failure and often leads to a good long swing trade for at least a day or two if triggered. One feature of the trade setup is that the entry trigger is less likely to be hit
CLS – bull flag – getting a little long in the tooth now at 5 bars.
Nasdaq futures, 15M intraday – marginal new low at a test of bottom tells us to stalk long opportunities as long as they make sense. In one time frame up we have “bear flags” forming on the 45M chart – the next long opportunity for swing traders (as opposed to intraday scalpers) is likely to be a long above the next 45M down bar or at least 1 or 2 15M down bars of sufficient depth.
S&P 500 futures, 15M intraday – the analysis is identical here.
Dow 30 futures – 45M intraday – already triggered against the “bear flag” in this time frame; given that YM is offered a 2B test of bottom – DIA / YM swing traders may be long at point (1) and those not already long stalking an opportunity now at point (2).
Today's transcript.
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