Monday, May 16, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 08:54 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Monday May 16th |
| 09:29 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
| 17:49 | Swing Scanner Results Monday May 16th closing data |
| 17:51 | Market Statistics For Monday May 16, 2005 |
Featured setups from Friday May 13, 2005 closing data symbol scan
Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups | Special Situations
Notes for the Day
- Will the tale of two markets hold up today and see tech advance regardless of the rest? Lets keep in mind that markets were headed for a major meltdown Friday before buyers came in.
Long Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.
Test of Bottom – Reversal
XLB – basic materials ETF – while we might not expect this to do much in this envrionment, it is a 2B test of bottom. Chances are any minor bounce here will make XLB a shortable candidate in the next few days.
LEH – brokers; perhaps a bit too early in the cycle to buy but here’s a 2B test of bottom which we can’t ignore.
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
IBB – iShares Biotech ETF; amazingly the first pause sine a test of bottom in early May. Its hit its second major target at the 50 period moving average – frequently we see price chop around between the 20 and 50EMA for a while after a move up like this. If filled therefore we want to see it move up with conviction.
PPH – pharma ETF – convenient place to attempt a long above a trendline “breakout”
RIMM – tech – first pause since its report; we keep seeing people of all sorts pull these things out of their pockets.
CPRT – used auto parts – perhaps these folks benefit from slowing sales growth in new cars. Certainly someone believes they do lately. First pause since the 2B test of bottom…
TLAB – tech – if filled demand price push through the 2 day high and hold strong
AAPL 3 inside up scenario near a gap down – retest of recent lows. This could also be stalked short with a break of Friday’s low as the trigger.
YHOO – breakout potential. Be wary of minor wiggles which stop us in only to reverse. Still, its worth the effort…
GNSS – first pause following consolidation “breakout”
Test of Top – Continuation
CAH – health care – consolidation breakout potential
Short Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, place a sell alert at or just below the low of the setup bar, and look for the first failed intraday bounce after the low has been broken. What we are looking for is price to push down, bounce a little, and fail again – this is where we want to get short.
Test of Top – Reversal
QQQQ – while we may not expect a big sell off in technology this morning, tech was the obvious standout on Friday and should the broader market continue to sell hard today its reasonable to assume that recent longs in tech will feel pressure which could easily pull price back into the rising wedge. Those recently long QQQQ will want to at least be very defensive if Friday’s lows are approached…
Retracement or Pause in Down Swing / Down Trend
MXO – disk drives, doing far worse than WDC or higher level firms such as EMC
HPQ – CEO resignation was such a positive influence on stock but that news has probably worn off. Stalk short on weakness…
CDN – reported end of April
UVN – narrow range day, careful in the early going. If it heads down it will need to pick up some steam and look like it will atempt to break Thursday’s low before I will consider holding overnight.
Special Situations
WMT – could go either way here
ADBE – ditto but I will be stalking a long here today; traditionally ADBE has been one of the few software stocks to hold up generally well in most envrionments, this recent weakness has me interested, but cautious. Must clear resistance overhead within 2 – 3 days of trading or I will take profits if indeed I’m able to hold past a single day.
LU was on our low priced list as a long opportunity – one last time here
Good morning, its Monday May 16th, the 136th day of 2005.
Before the bell, crude futures are off another 1.38% now at $48.00 even; Gold is also weaker as the US Dollar continues to hold its recent gains. Stock index futures are trading down slightly from Friday’s closing values.
Business inventories have been rising the most since the second quarter of 2000, according to the New York Fed’s manufacturing index survey which today delivered a surprisingly weak decline.
``It’s not out of the question for this regional index to fall into a negative range, given the problems the U.S. auto industry is having right now,’’ Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial Inc. in Chicago said before the report. ``The bigger question is whether U.S. manufacturing is going to contract, and the answer is, no.’’1
March figures for foreign purchases of US securities showed that foreign central banks were net sellers of US assets for the first time in nearly two years.
Chinese holdings of U.S. Treasurys dropped for the first time in just over a year. Japanese holdings fell for the second time in the past three months, while investors in the Caribbean banking centers increased their holdings by 31%.2
The US dollar retreated somewhat following the 9:00 am report, and gold has bounced around but remained mostly unchanged following the two month old data release.
US Market Calendar
- 8:30 am: Empire State Manufacturing Survey – May1
- 9:00 am: Foreign Purchases of U.S. Securities – March2
- 1:00 pm: NAHB Housing Index – May
- 3 & 6-month T-bill auction
Canadian Market Calendar
- 8:30 am: Existing Home Sales – Apr.
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
1 New York Fed’s Manufacturing Index Decreased to -11.1 in May
2 U.S. capital inflows slow in March
Today's transcript.
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Monday May 16th closing data
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Statistics for Monday May 16, 2005
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 284 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 463 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 0.61 : 1 |
| Advancers | 75% |
| Decliners | 23% |
| Unchanged | 2% |
| Up Bars | 42% |
| Down Bars | 23% |
| Inside Bars | 26% |
| Outside Bars | 3% |
| Close > 20EMA | 75% |
| Close > 50SMA | 42% |
| Close > 200SMA | 49% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 21% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 31% |