Tuesday, May 17, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 08:52 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Tuesday May 17 |
| 15:04 | The Day Behind Economic releases and news |
| 17:36 | Swing Scanner Results Tuesday May 17 closing data |
| 17:37 | Market Statistics For Tuesday May 17, 2005 |
Featured setups from Monday May 16, 2005 closing data symbol scan
Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups
Notes for the Day
- Many of yesterday’s featured setups moved up rather nicely yesterday – focus on taking profits; follow up on some of the laggards (such as RIMM) but lets be cautious here today as there may be a reason for their under-performance.
- many oil and oil services made at least short term bottoming patterns yesterday – it may only be a bounce for a day or two, or could be a sector bottom of note – we’ve no idea early on how its going to play out. Hold only if they close strongly.
Long Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.
Test of Bottom – Reversal
OIL AND OIL SERVICES
It may be that all of these fail in the days to come, but when so many bottoming patterns show up across an entire sector, we have to at least give it a try. Or use XLE – energy ETF. Decline in industrial production numbers out this morning may put pressure on the group.
PRODUCERS
ECA:C (also ECA:NYSE, note a split is in progress) hammer poke out of triangle; secondary trendline (red) is drawn as such because a tall up bar is a key base of support
TLM:C (TLM:NYSE) test of bottom of range
OXY – test of bottom of range
APA – breaks decending trendline – has a harder hill to climb
BR – test of bottom of range – but hold only if closes above resistance
REFINERS
VLO, hammer poke out of descending wedge
OIL SERVICES
HAL – I’m a little less enthusiastic about this chart, but it is a test of bottom. Expect a bounce to resistance near 42.50 to try head lower at some point. Clearly its holding up better than some other oil services (RDC). Another alternative would be PDS.
RDC – almost a piercing line candle on a poke through the decending wedge
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
QCOM
RIMM – follow up from yesterday
Short Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, place a sell alert at or just below the low of the setup bar, and look for the first failed intraday bounce after the low has been broken. What we are looking for is price to push down, bounce a little, and fail again – this is where we want to get short.
Retracement or Pause in Down Swing / Down Trend
D – follow up for 1 – 2 days from here
JPM – still in the process of following through to the rising wedge target
Good morning, its Tuesday May 17th, the 137th day of 2005.
Producer prices were up a sharper than expected 0.6 percent last month with both core and headline numbers rising more than expected. Wha’s really key about today is whether oil holds recent levels or continues last week’s sell off.
``You have to take this data with a little caution because the overall number being up 0.6 percent includes the energy prices,’’ Daniel Laufenberg, chief economist at American Express Financial Corp., said of the producer prices report in an interview. ``We know that more recently those prices have come down a bit, so we’re not likely to see that continuing.’’2
Meanwhile, blame it on the weather, industrial production falls:
WASHINGTON (AFX)—A sharp decline in the production of automobiles dragged down U.S. industrial production in April, the Federal Reserve reported Tuesday. Industrial production fell 0.2% in April. At the same time, capacity utilization eased to 79.2% from 79.4%. The declines in industrial output and capacity were unexpected. Economists were expecting production to rise 0.2% and capacity utilization to remain unchanged to 79.4%. In April, the indexes for manufacturing and mining were unchanged, while the output of utilities dropped 2.3%
The original data is always available on the Federal Reserve web site.
US Market Calendar
- 8:30 am: Producer Price Index – Apr.1
- 8:30 am: Housing Starts – Apr.
- 8:30 am: Building Permits – Apr.
- 8:55 am: Redbook – May 14th week
- 9:15 am: Industrial Production – Apr.2
- 9:15 am: Capacity Utilization – Apr.
Canadian Market Calendar
- No releases
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
1 April producer prices up 0.6 percent
2 Producer Prices in U.S. Rise 0.6 Percent; Core Rate Climbs 0.3 Percent
Tuesday May 17 closing data
Click on the title above to expand this document.
Statistics for Tuesday May 17, 2005
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 475 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 272 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 1.74 : 1 |
| Advancers | 73% |
| Decliners | 25% |
| Unchanged | 3% |
| Up Bars | 59% |
| Down Bars | 17% |
| Inside Bars | 9% |
| Outside Bars | 8% |
| Close > 20EMA | 73% |
| Close > 50SMA | 46% |
| Close > 200SMA | 52% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 23% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 28% |