Wednesday, May 18, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 06:52 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Wednesday May 18th |
| 10:27 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
| 17:34 | Swing Scanner Results Wednesday May 18th closing data |
| 17:35 | Market Statistics For Wednesday May 18, 2005 |
Featured setups from Tuesday May 17, 2005 closing data symbol scan
Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups
Notes for the Day
- An outage at our data centre last night means I’ve been up just a week bit too late here, and as a result this issue of Swing Trade Setups will be cut a little short today.
- We’ve already had quite a few winning trades close strongly positive this week, our focus should be on protecting profits as this rally continues.
Long Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
SEBL is in chop, but is a prime candidate for a breakout provided the market is acting strongly, we should stalk it.
MXO – first pause after a descending trendline breakout (not drawn) – this is a real laggard compared to WDC peer, so caution. Demand price close well above the 2-day high before considering holding overnight.
KLIC – may, I repeat, may, get some lift off AMAT report. First pause after 2B test of bottom. Beware of minor wiggle up that reverses…
JNPR – would rather trade this after it had broken the trendline but its been acting so strongly, it may not fully break the rising line.
QLTI – first significant pause after 2 weeks of up. Disclaimer, I’m still holding my full position from almost the very low of that spike bottom, and I will take profits on at least 1/4 – 1/2 size if price moves up and fails to hold above Tuesday’s high.
EMC
PDLI
SIRI – I know some are following this – it has to really push up once filled.
ADBE
Test of Top – Continuation
Short Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, place a sell alert at or just below the low of the setup bar, and look for the first failed intraday bounce after the low has been broken. What we are looking for is price to push down, bounce a little, and fail again – this is where we want to get short.
Retracement or Pause in Down Swing / Down Trend
MYG, someone is lonely over there.
AKAM – IF it doesn’t trigger on Wednesday, and IF it draws out a minor bounce something like that which is envisioned and drawn in red on this chart, stalk the bounce for the next 2 days, selling underneath prior day’s up bar.
CCU
NLY – acting weak despite mortgage market.
Test of Bottom – Continuation
KGC – if the US Dollar fails to weaken here soon, we will start seeing bear flag or stealth bear flags form in all the gold names over the next few days. While we may stalk these long, this is a reminder to consider they may all head much lower…
Good afternoon, its Wednesday May 18th, the 138th day of 2005.
Following somewhat benign Consumer Price Index news1, the dollar has been trading slightly weaker, giving Gold names a second day of rally. China swings back at Sec. Snow’s comments of yesterday, but at the same time initiated a new forex dealing system trading the yuan against a basket of currencies – a move much expected.
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending May 13, 2005
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged over 15.5 million barrels per day during the week ending May 13, up 158,000 barrels per day from the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 94.0 percent of their operable capacity last week. With an increase in refinery inputs, gasoline production increased last week, averaging nearly 9.0 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production inched slightly higher compared to the previous week, averaging nearly 4.1 million barrels per day.
Awash in oil still, but energy stocks are holding up surprisingly well today, at least so far. That’s interesting!
1 Core consumer prices flat in April
Today's transcript.
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Wednesday May 18th closing data
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Statistics for Wednesday May 18, 2005
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 665 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 82 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 8.10 : 1 |
| Advancers | 82% |
| Decliners | 16% |
| Unchanged | 1% |
| Up Bars | 86% |
| Down Bars | 3% |
| Inside Bars | 3% |
| Outside Bars | 4% |
| Close > 20EMA | 82% |
| Close > 50SMA | 55% |
| Close > 200SMA | 58% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 26% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 27% |