Wednesday, May 4, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 09:15 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Wednesday May 4 |
| 11:18 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
| 16:28 | Swing Scanner Results Wednesday May 4th closing data |
| 16:30 | Market Statistics For Wednesday May 4, 2005 |
Featured setups from Tuesday May 3, 2005 closing data symbol scan
Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups | Special Situations
Notes for the Day
- Today, continuation of the Dow 30 / S&P 500 breakouts above the trading range is the key; aggressive traders may wish to stalk a short at yesterday’s low, holding only if closes strongly in favour of the trade. That said, lets hope we see a little up for a few days, just for a change of pace.
Long Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
SEPR – pharma – pulls back to what was resistance. Now a 5 bar pull back, we need to bail if price does not hold above trigger point – beware the “one day wonder”
MCHP – small retracement after a big gap up, one of the more exhuberant chip stocks these days. Intraday traders only.
MCHP – weekly chart breakout
CMCSA – something seems to be up in the cable / media stocks – here’s an in side bar just below resistance to stalk. Also check the weekly:
CMCSA – often when a pull back is cleaner on the weekly I will attempt a trade on a messy chart like CMCSA’s daily provided there’s a place to lurk
Test of Top – Continuation
Short Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, place a sell alert at or just below the low of the setup bar, and look for the first failed intraday bounce after the low has been broken. What we are looking for is price to push down, bounce a little, and fail again – this is where we want to get short.
Test of Top – Reversal
DIA – range high breakout – always stalk failure in the first day or two following; if unwilling to short at least be more cautious with open low positions if this price is hit today.
Retracement or Pause in Down Swing / Down Trend
QQQQ – aggressive traders only, purely a defensive move to stalk the developing bounce in the early going here with a sell below which we hope will not be hit
MACR – posts loss, being acquired by ADBE
ADBE – one or both may provide another leg down here; caution on both
AMD – no intel these days
GRA
Special Situations
Oil and Gas
A selection of speculative long entries above recent pull backs; we should not expect to see these hit unless a surprise shows up in the numbers; remember oil inventory report at 10:30 am this morning. I must stress that I don’t expect many of these to trigger or indeed work, but I have to keep following price down in this sector.
EP – natural gas producer and pipeline – eventually these will be good names to be in; monitor two day high here for intraday entry, hold only if price closes strongly.
DVN – heavy on natural has as well; piercing line in April may have set a bottom, here’s a pull back to give it one shot here.
ECA – also natural gas heavy, an inside bar; we could stalk a short underneath as well.
TLM – more oil than gas, down bar/ledge to position above. Announced results (as has ECA) and raised dividend so some risk is out of stock now, perhaps a reaction trade available here
SU appears to be North America’s most loved oil stock right now. Caution!
WFT oil field services, interesting bit bars here caught my attention
XLE – or choose the energy ETF
Tech
CLS – doesn’t deserve to be traded long but noted a narrow range 7 day and I’m going to stalk a day trade just in case rising overall market gives extra lift here. May not hold overnight.
Good morning, its Wednesday May 4th and markets are somewhat reluctantly rising above the trading range of the past few weeks.
The USD is off 0.66% today even as the European Central Bank1 decided to hold rates, again, as expected. We’ve been following the USD carefully over the past few weeks, and Gold as well – last week’s ABX entry continues to play out for those who remain long the stock; other Golds are so far rising on the “surprise” weakness in the USD.
``People are going to question just how much more tightening we’re going to get this year,’’ said Michael Metcalfe, senior strategist in London at State Street Global Markets, a unit of the largest provider of investment services to institutions. ``The pressure on the dollar is going to continue.’’
Crude: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
U.S. crude oil imports averaged nearly 10.3 million barrels per day last week, down 604,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged nearly 10.2 million barrels per day, which is 114,000 barrels per day more than averaged over the comparable four weeks last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged over 1.0 million barrels per day for the fourth consecutive week, the first time this has ever happened. Distillate fuel imports averaged 287,000 barrels per day last week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) rose by 2.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 327.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper end of the average range for this time of year, and the highest since the end of March 2002. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 2.2 million barrels last week, putting them at the upper end of the average range. Distillate fuel inventories declined by 0.3 million barrels last week, and are now in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories rose by 5.0 million barrels last week, and remain in the upper half of the average range.
Total product supplied over the last four-week period has averaged nearly 20.4 million barrels per day, or 0.9 percent more than averaged over the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged over 9.1 million barrels per day, or 0.9 percent above the same period last year, while distillate fuel demand has averaged over 4.2 million barrels per day, or 2.2 percent above the same period last year. Kerosene-type jet fuel demand is up 2.5 percent over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year.
Gasoline demand has shrunk somewhat – most weeks its been at 2%; in the past 10 reports or so its only been near 1% twice. Meanwhile jet fuel demand continues to rise and stocks are lower. Refiners will find some support in this – certainly when the current dip is done in the sector, the refiners are a place to be. Unfortunately everyone knows this and everyone is already long the group, which probably means they have to go lower for a while!
While Crude dropped fairly significantly following the report, the rebound has brought price right back to where support may be found.
CLM5 – 20 minute chart
On the smaller time frame chart we can see where the line in the sand is currently:
... suggesting that if price can hold above 49.50 and start to trend higher intraday, it will catch many folks off guard. If not, we expect 49 will break and head lower until next week.
US Market Calendar
Canadian Market Calendar
- 8:15 am: Foreign Reserves – Apr.
- 10-year bond auction
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
1 Dollar Falls Against Euro, Yen; Fed May Slow Rate Increases
2 April ISM services index falls to 61.7%
3 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Today's transcript.
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Wednesday May 4th closing data
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Statistics for Wednesday May 4, 2005
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 543 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 208 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 2.61 : 1 |
| Advancers | 86% |
| Decliners | 12% |
| Unchanged | 2% |
| Up Bars | 63% |
| Down Bars | 15% |
| Inside Bars | 9% |
| Outside Bars | 8% |
| Close > 20EMA | 86% |
| Close > 50SMA | 37% |
| Close > 200SMA | 52% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 20% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 33% |