Friday, May 6, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 05:38 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Friday May 6 |
| 06:14 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
Featured setups from Thursday May 5, 2005 closing data symbol scan
Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups | Special Situations
Notes for the Day
- Mostly in hold mode here – having done the work to get long over the past week, its now time to move some or all of each position to a tighter profit stop in case markets retreat on Crude other news. I do intent to carry a significant chunk of my open positions with a break even stop on the off chance that price breaks above resistance discussed yesterday.
- From yesterday’s swing trade list MSFT, XLU, CNET are still valid, although with CNET specifically I am growing more cautious on it. OPWV had a wild outside bar – may stalk it intraday this am.
Long Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.
Test of Bottom – Reversal
ORCL – first pause after testing a bottom.
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
MMC – sometimes boring stocks move a lot – many gap ups lately have been continuing so I’ll try a long in MMC, holding only if it acts very strong.
ZMH – need a hip? knee? – minor pull back following an attempted trendline breakout above retracement gives us a place to lurk long.
CMCSA – cable/media – may not be time for this one yet but I’ve never met a triangle break out and pull back that I didn’t want to monitor above, just in case a surprise long shows up.
Test of Top – Continuation
WFC – a second attempt at this one
Short Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, place a sell alert at or just below the low of the setup bar, and look for the first failed intraday bounce after the low has been broken. What we are looking for is price to push down, bounce a little, and fail again – this is where we want to get short.
- Today, see Special Situations, also XLNX and NT from prior day’s list can be stalked short one last day today.
Special Situations
Protecting Profits – 5 days of up – longest stretch in some time, and certainly the most distance has been covered (in the up direction!). While we might just have received a gift from F and GM yesterday – panic sell setting up the “fuel” for a move directly up, its certainly not going to surprise us to see price pull back some.
DIA – long or short
I’ll be holding most of my new long positions with break even or better stops but will consider taking 1/2 profit in weaker looking names.
Good morning, its Friday May 6th, the 126th day of 2005 and we are waiting for the employment report, with perhaps a little more angst building up than normal, since the Fed continues to highlight labour in its communiques, but mostly because traders are looking for a reason to believe the Fed will blink, or give up, its plan of steadily rising rates.
Crude is holding yesterday’s gains in the pre-market; an interesting possibility here is breakout above the declining triangle on the daily chart, which would see price return to roughly 55–56 if a move out of the wedge fully resolves.
CLM5 and M5/Q5 spread
Of course in the early going we’ll be looking for failure at the break of the trendline and a failed test of the recent range lows—that scenario likely to extend price to 45.
US Market Calendar
- 8:30 am: Employment Report – Apr.
- 3:00 pm: Consumer Credit – Mar.
Canadian Market Calendar
- 7:00 am: Employment Report – Apr.
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
Today's transcript.
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