Monday, May 9, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 07:59 | Market Statistics For Friday May 6, 2005 |
| 08:40 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Monday May 9th |
| 09:27 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
| 17:55 | Swing Scanner Results Monday May 9th closing data |
| 17:57 | Market Statistics For Monday May 9, 2005 |
Statistics for Friday May 6, 2005
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 539 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 210 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 2.56 : 1 |
| Advancers | 50% |
| Decliners | 47% |
| Unchanged | 3% |
| Up Bars | 39% |
| Down Bars | 26% |
| Inside Bars | 24% |
| Outside Bars | 4% |
| Close > 20EMA | 50% |
| Close > 50SMA | 39% |
| Close > 200SMA | 52% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 26% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 30% |
Featured setups from Friday May 6, 2005 closing data symbol scan
Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups | Special Situations
Notes for the Day
- Gold names offering a first pull back in an upswing, but caution here – the USD has been holding strength off the jobs number last week but more importantly, over weakness in certain Euro countries including Germany.
DIA – lets use the Dow 30 as our roadmap; last week price rallied to overhead resistance on the major market indexes. If long for the last week we’ll want to consider taking some profit off the table on the break of the two day low, however any minor break of the rising trendline (today, tomorrow) will be an opportunity to stalk new longs as well. Ideally price will head up directly today – if not already long we can monitor Friday’s high for an intraday entry and hold only if price closes well above the two day high. Targets ahead as marked.
Long Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
YHOO – pause after trendline breakout
ABX – gold, one of the stronger performers and one to follow going forward
CDE – gold, typical chart of many of the smaller names (see BGO as well)
AEP – electric utilities
IACI – media
Test of Top – Continuation
EIX – electric utilities, note AEP also same sector
JNPR isn’t testing a top per se, but is likely to breakout of this consolidation this week as CSCO reports. Its been a little frustrating trying to capture a move out of the range in this name but generally by the time price has chopped more than 10 days like this, the stock is ready to go. Narrow range inside bar gives us a location to stalk…
Short Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, place a sell alert at or just below the low of the setup bar, and look for the first failed intraday bounce after the low has been broken. What we are looking for is price to push down, bounce a little, and fail again – this is where we want to get short.
Retracement or Pause in Down Swing / Down Trend
DLTR – time to stalk a short again in this name, follow up for 1 – 2 days if not triggered today.
COCO (and CECO) have been on our short list a number of times; note the “hammer” two days back – most folks tend to believe that signals a short term bottom at least, and in some cases it does, however if price threatens to break the hammer’s low we’ll wish we took this short opportunity. Worth the risk, but lets be aware its possibly time for COCO to bounce or pause a while.
SBL – has been so weak, if stopped in we’ll want it to prove its still weak by turning the trade fairly directly profitable
MAS – bounce to gap/resistance
MWD – number of brokerages downgraded by… another broker
Oil or Oil Services
PXD – energy – we can’t ignore these charts – a weak bounce which can’t even make it to overhead resistance, a classic shorting opportunity even if it is in energy.
DO – oilfield services
VLO – even the mighty VLO may not be immune, however I personally would not short VLO but use this pattern as a reason to be extra-cautious in going long (and bide my time to wait for a better opportunity to get long this particular name)
Special Situations
NT – as much as I dislike a company that can’t perform a simple function like accounting, on time, perhaps there is finally enough bad news baked into NT to allow a venture out on the long side. Hold only if closes above immediate resistance (marked)
Good morning, its Monday May9th, the 129th day of 2005 and a light day for domestic economic news.
Earlier today the Bank of England announced it was holding interest rate at 4.75 percent, in-line with market expectations. The BOE has raised interest rates five times in the ten months since last August. Consumer confidence in germany remains weak, with indicators underscoring a reluctance of consumers there to step up purchasing activity.
Meanwhile back in the US:
88% of S&P 500 constituents having reported their first quarter numbers, actual Q1— 2005 earnings (US$17.97) are up 14.2% from last year but remain flat on a sequential basis. Exhibit 4 offers an illustration of S&P 500 Quarterly EPS growth rate. According to Bloomberg, 80% of companies have either met or exceeded expectations, a level in line with previous quarters. This positive earnings performance is currently overlooked by the reduced forward outlook.—Scotia Capital Markets
In Canada, housing starts1 rose a greater than expected 5.5 percent in April, 230,400 housing units starting construction last month.
Stock futures are up marginally, and so is Crude for the front month contract, up 0.26% but well within Friday’s range. On the back of last week’s jobs numbers and disappointing European economic outlook, the USD continues to hold its recent strength, and is approaching a key test area near 85 on the US Dollar Index.
US Market Calendar
- 10:00 am: Wholesale Trade – Mar.
- 3 & 6-month T-bill auction
Canadian Market Calendar
- 8:15 am: Housing Starts – April1
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
1 Canada April Housing Starts Rise More-Than-Expected 5.5 Percent
Today's transcript.
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Monday May 9th closing data
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Statistics for Monday May 9, 2005
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 482 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 267 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 1.80 : 1 |
| Advancers | 71% |
| Decliners | 27% |
| Unchanged | 2% |
| Up Bars | 34% |
| Down Bars | 34% |
| Inside Bars | 12% |
| Outside Bars | 13% |
| Close > 20EMA | 71% |
| Close > 50SMA | 44% |
| Close > 200SMA | 54% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 26% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 30% |