Tuesday, June 14, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 09:02 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Tuesday June 14 |
| 10:16 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news |
| 14:49 | Volatile Symbols For the tool box... |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
Featured setups from Monday June 13, 2005 closing data symbol scan
Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups
Notes for the Day
Good morning – after an initial pop off PPI news futures backed right off almost to where they had been. Crude is off 1/3 a percent, NG is up 0.61%, gold off marginally; the USD had been down but is currently trying to set an intraday bottom following PPI news and is surging back to 89 on the index and may put Gold under some pressure. We’ve a busy week still ahead from an economic news perspective, so chop won’t surprise us…
Long Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
IMCL – biotech and Martha’s favorite – gapped up on good news – its just possible this one has set a bottom for a while.
LOW – home improvement
MAS – building supplies
ENERGY
The higher energy stocks go the more cautious I get. We are running out of laggards to choose from, not all will respond like yesterdays XTO! If you are not already long the sector (where have you been?) please be extra cautious here.
DVN – producer
VLO – refiner
HAL – services
RIG – services
BJS – services
Test of Top – Continuation
BEAS gapped down on an analyst report – will stalk a long here for a single day, and hold only if it closes very strongly. At minimum there may be a decent intraday scalp available, which might turn into a good entry for a hold.
Short Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, place a sell alert at or just below the low of the setup bar, and look for the first failed intraday bounce after the low has been broken. What we are looking for is price to push down, bounce a little, and fail again – this is where we want to get short.
Test of Top – Reversal
CFC – financial services
SMH – semi HOLDRs ETF – not technically a test of top but the uppermost range is being continually tested here. There’s been some downside bias lately and semis have had a big run up. SMH could be used to hedge existing positions or get net short with a 34 and 33 set of targets below. As always, beware of chop here…
Retracement or Pause in Down Swing / Down Trend
CDWC follow up for 2 more days…
AMGN – much loved, but a short candidate just the same
AVP – no one at home for Avon, second time on the list. Idea was right last time but no trade.
Good morning, today is Tuesday June 14th, the 165th day of 2005, as we contemplate whether we have a Goldilocks economy or something just a little colder than just right.
This mornings set of contradictory economic news include word that Producer Prices, ex food and energy (which none of us mere mortals consume, right?) came in under concensus of 0.2% at 0.1% actual. Including food and energy, PPI dropped 0.6% month over month. Following the release of PPI data, stock index futures rallied initially (a stop run) and have since backed right off shedding all gains and a little bit more. The USD dropped and has since rallied quite strongly, although remains within yesterday’s range1.
``The biggest unknown’’ for Wal-Mart, Chief Executive Officer H. Lee Scott said last month, is ``the impact of gasoline prices on our customer base.’’
Retail sales dropped 0.5% more than twice the consensus, and retail sales less autos dropped in May to a -0.2% month over month change when +0.2% had been expected.
US Market Calendar
- 7:45 am: ICSC-UBS Store Sales
- 8:30 am: Producer Price Index – May2
- 8:30 am: Retail Sales – May3
- 8:55 am: Redbook – Jun. 11th week
Canadian Market Calendar
- 8:30 am: Manufacturing Shipments & Orders – Apr.
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
1 Dollar Declines After May Retail Sales Fall More Than Forecast
2 U.S. May Producer Prices Fall 0.6%; Core Rate Up 0.1%
3 U.S. Retail Sales Fell 0.5% in May; Down 0.2% Excluding Autos
While sitting out this chop all day I’ve been putting together an updated symbol universe for the pattern scanner; a seperate list I also use to look for swing trades is the large daily range percent movers list.
These stocks:
- trade more than 1.5M shares on average daily (more than 500K shares on TSX)
- have an average daily range (high – low), expressed as a percentage of price, of more than 1.5%
- are 30$ or more
I’ve found that stocks of this nature make for more reliable intraday trading; quite a few of the names also happen to show up on our swing trade list from time to time.
You can find the list at:
http://www.trendvue.com/memberfiles/big-avgrange-pct
And a comma separated value format file (will load in Excel if you have that available to you) showing average daily range % and average volume (10 day simple moving average):
http://www.trendvue.com/memberfiles/big-avgrange-pct.csv
I’ll update these occasionally, more often if I know folks are making use of them!
Today's transcript.
Click on the title above to expand this document.