Wednesday, June 15, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 04:37 | Swing Scanner Results Tuesday June 14 closing data |
| 04:40 | Market Statistics For Tuesday June 14, 2005 |
| 09:00 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Wednesday June 15 |
| 09:26 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
| 17:11 | Swing Scanner Results Wednesday June 15 closing data |
| 17:14 | Market Statistics For Wednesday June 15, 2005 |
Tuesday June 14 closing data
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Statistics for Tuesday June 14, 2005
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 485 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 261 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 1.85 : 1 |
| Advancers | 60% |
| Decliners | 38% |
| Unchanged | 2% |
| Up Bars | 47% |
| Down Bars | 24% |
| Inside Bars | 19% |
| Outside Bars | 5% |
| Close > 20EMA | 60% |
| Close > 50SMA | 76% |
| Close > 200SMA | 61% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 43% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 17% |
Featured setups from Tuesday June 14, 2005 closing data symbol scan
Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups | Special Situations
Notes for the Day
With so many economic news releases today, the theme du jour might well be labelled Don’t like these numbers? Wait just a little while for one that matches your outlook…
DIA – Dow 30 ETF, self explanatory. We may be long AND short by the end of the day, it wouldn’t surprise me one bit.
QQQQ – Nasdaq 100 ETF, ditto!
Long Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
TSO – refiner – needs speed to get and and stay in…
YHOO
EBAY
GOLD
USD still fighting to hold gains of last two days but has weakened following both OPEC news and foreign investment statistics. Monitor sector closely.
PDG:C (PDG) single down bar in still intact down swing
ABX
NEM
FCX
SLF:C (SLF) – financials – would have been better to see price not retrace quite this far after breaking out of congestion but I’ll stalk it anyway but with caution
Test of Top – Continuation
ESI:C (TSX only) – oilfield services
ECA – largest N.A. natural gas producer
Short Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, place a sell alert at or just below the low of the setup bar, and look for the first failed intraday bounce after the low has been broken. What we are looking for is price to push down, bounce a little, and fail again – this is where we want to get short.
Test of Top – Reversal
CFC follow up from yesterday
Retracement or Pause in Down Swing / Down Trend
COCO – education – a pause in a much longer term down trend as price bounces to overhead resistance / rising wedge. One stab only.
RIMM – not a stock I care to short and hold overnight unless my entry gains significant open profit by the close. RIM has been beset by much bad news lately and there may yet a little more down / potential bear flag forming suggests following up 1 or 2 more days. Disclaimer I’ve traded RIM long intraday twice in last two days for scalps.
Special Situations
QLT:C (QLTI) – beaten up on news , worth one shot at a long. Hold only if price closes strongly.
Good morning, its Wednesday June 15th, the 166th day of 2005.
If you don’t like one set of economic figures today, wait for a few minutes and there will be another set which might fit your view better. We are probably on safe ground in expecting that the market will break out of the range its been in for a number of days here, but it won’t surprise me at all if we aren’t both long and short the market before the day is over.
Business inventories[1] are up 0.3%, coming in a tenth under concensus and inventory to sales dropped to 1.30, the third monthly decline in a row.
Stock index futures reacted strongly to release of an unexpectedly tame Consumer Price Index for May, with the core rate rising only 0.1 percent.2 Consumer prices were up 2.8% year over year for the 12 months ending in May.
Stating the obvious:
``Although inflation prices look well-contained, we should not ignore the possibility that energy prices may not be as favorable in the immediate months ahead,’’ said Anthony Chan, a senior economist at JPMorgan Asset Management in Columbus, Ohio, before the report.
Indeed, crude oil prices have rallied significantly over the past few weeks.
The US Dollar index has sold off hard following this mornings report of foreign purchases of US securities which showed a big miss from expectations of 47.4 billion—bringing back to the forefont of concern the US trade deficit.
Industrial Production rose 0.4% in May which was double expectations, however April’s figures were revised to show a larger decrease of 0.3%.5
``Industrial production rose nearly a percentage point more than GDP growth last year and I would guess that it will be nearly a point less this year,’’ Steven Wood, president of Insight Economics in Danville, California, said before the report. ``Manufacturing just isn’t the same driver of economic activity in `04 as it was in `05.’’
All eyes are now looking forward to the EIA and API oil inventory reports at 10:30 and then the Beige Book at 2pm which provides anecdotal and evidence to the Federal Open Market Committee members ahead of the next interest rate policy setting meeting to be held later this month.
US Market Calendar
- 7:00 am: MBA Purchase Applications
- 8:30 am: Business Inventories – Apr.1
- 8:30 am: Consumer Price Index – May2
- 8:30 am: Empire State Manufacturing Survey – Jun.3
- 9:00 am: Foreign Purchases of U.S. Securities – Apr.4
- 9:15 am: Industrial Production – May5
- 9:15 am: Capacity Utilization – May5
- 10:30 am: EIA Petroleum Status Report
- 1:00 pm: NAHB Housing Index – Jun.
- 2:00 pm: Beige Book
Canadian Market Calendar
- 8:30 am: Existing Home Sales – May
- 8:30 am: New Motor Vehicle Sales – Apr.
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
1 April business inventories up 0.3%
2 U.S. Consumer Prices Declined 0.1% in May; Core Rate Rose 0.1%
3 U.S. June Empire State index rebounds to 11.7
4 US net capital inflows $47.4 billion in April
5 U.S. Industrial Production Rose 0.4% in May, More Than Expected
Today's transcript.
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Wednesday June 15 closing data
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Statistics for Wednesday June 15, 2005
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 471 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 274 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 1.71 : 1 |
| Advancers | 57% |
| Decliners | 40% |
| Unchanged | 3% |
| Up Bars | 40% |
| Down Bars | 30% |
| Inside Bars | 8% |
| Outside Bars | 17% |
| Close > 20EMA | 57% |
| Close > 50SMA | 77% |
| Close > 200SMA | 61% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 44% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 16% |