Thursday, June 16, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 09:07 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Thursday June 16 |
| 09:45 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news |
| 10:21 | Energy: Heads up |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
| 23:32 | Swing Scanner Results Thursday June 16 closing data |
| 23:36 | Market Statistics For Thursday June 16, 2005 |
Featured setups from Wednesday June 15, 2005 closing data symbol scan
Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups
Notes for the Day
Quick thoughts:
- Remember, its Quadruple Witching Week – meaning stock index futures, options, single stock futures, etc are all expiring this week and rolling over to new contracts. Bizzare moves and overall lack of direction are not uncommon outcomes at such times.
- Copper gapped up this morning; gold trading higher this morning – look for some action in that sector. USD trading below yesterday’s range now on day two of the retracement, approaching an important trendline on the daily
- Aluminum trading higher and may have made an exhaustion bottom – keep an eye on AL and AA; an intraday entry if price pushes above yesterdays high might be worthwhile here
- Crude is trading slightly higher but lets be very careful out there in energy land – stocks have run up an awful lot; there were signs yesterday of a willingness to sell Crude and it wouldn’t take much of a sell off to get a big panic profit taking round in energy going. Be sure you have profit stops in the sector, and on any big dip either intraday or in the days to come we’ll again be buyers I’m sure…
- If you weren’t with us getting long QQQQ intraday yesterday its now time to look for a breakout above yesterday’s high; and I will be selling the broad market (and QQQQ) short if yesterday’s low is broken.
QQQQ
DIA Dow 30 – poised for an attempt at a breakout
Long Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
YHOO follow up from yesterday
QCOM – this is a long retracement back to the 50 adn 68% fib lines – stalk a long, hold only if strong.
KLAC – neat little triangle fake out to exploit
RIMM (RIM:C) – tech – hit by patent news thought resolved; disclaimer, I bought this very near the lows yesterday.
SIRI
CD
GOLDS
We nabbed the leaders yesterday, today its the laggards:
NEM
IMG:C (IAG:AMEX)
CBJ (CBJ:C)
TEK.SVB:C – Teck Cominco is in all sorts of metals; if the economy is still expanding and China still growing, its one to try to own
BANKS – Canadian
For our readers up north:
TD:C (TD:NYSE)
RY:C (RY:NYSE)
Test of Top – Continuation
INTU – software – pause at test of top
Short Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, place a sell alert at or just below the low of the setup bar, and look for the first failed intraday bounce after the low has been broken. What we are looking for is price to push down, bounce a little, and fail again – this is where we want to get short.
Retracement or Pause in Down Swing / Down Trend
PG – consumer products – I’m torn putting this hear even though I have included it our short list a number of times, it shouldn’t be doing badly in this economy and in fact is a defensive name… but what many brokers mean by defensive stocks are “stocks that will fall less in a decline” !! And falling stocks (unless we are short) is most definitely not for us. Approach short with caution nonetheless.
Test of Bottom – Continuation
VIA.B – media – could be traded either direction here
Good morning, today is Thursday June 16th, the 167th day of 2005.
After yesterdays blast of economic news the next four days are going to seem relatively quiet. The general concensus following reports yesterday appears to be ”hmnn… economy not too hot, not too cold… maybe the Goldilocks economy is still with us”.
While fear of more rate hikes hasn’t quite left the building yet, one senses that fear is near the exit door. The US dollar reaction to declining international securities purchases (reported yesterday) may also be in part on anticipation of signals from the Fed that the rate increase cycle is nearing a close. On the otherhand, some old-time economy watchers still feel that rising gold is a sign of rising inflation and gold is most certainly moving higher over the past two weeks.
Housing starts for May came in slightly below expectations but still the absolute number is simply incredible – over 2 million new homes started last month. Its like a new city every month.
``At the moment, it’s still very hot,’’ Nigel Gault, director of U.S. research at Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts, said before the report. ``All of these fundamentals here—low rates, employment growth and strong demographics—are favorable.’’1
Have a good day… watch energy…
US Market Calendar
- 8:30 am: Housing Starts – May1
- 8:30 am: Building Permits – May
- 8:30 am: Initial Claims – Jun. 11th week
- 12:00 pm: Philadelphia Fed Index – Jun.
- 1:30 pm (ET): Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Hoenig to speak about the U.S. economic outlook
Canadian Market Calendar
- 8:30 am: International Securities Transactions – Apr.
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
1 U.S. Housing Starts Rose 0.2% in May to 2.009 Million-Unit Pace
Yesterday we marked out a point of failure in crude, which led ultimately to a big clunk in the back part of the trading session. Today, there is a test on-going right now which will determine if price heads lower (initial targets 55, 54 and 53) over the next few days:
I’m using this information to raise stops on certain stocks – oil heavy in particular – and take a few profits on any weakness. What if there is more to come? No problem… I’ve no problem rebuying any of these stocks even at these lofty levels once I sell them.
Today's transcript.
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Thursday June 16 closing data
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Statistics for Thursday June 16, 2005
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 527 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 218 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 2.41 : 1 |
| Advancers | 69% |
| Decliners | 28% |
| Unchanged | 3% |
| Up Bars | 57% |
| Down Bars | 15% |
| Inside Bars | 18% |
| Outside Bars | 5% |
| Close > 20EMA | 69% |
| Close > 50SMA | 81% |
| Close > 200SMA | 63% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 44% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 15% |