Friday, June 17, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 05:50 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Friday June 17 |
| 09:16 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
Featured setups from Thursday June 16, 2005 closing data symbol scan
Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups | Special Situations
Notes for the Day
All crude, all of the time market – with the current month contract trading at just over 57, and the September contract at over 58, recent price action tells us that one market – either oil or the broader stock market – will have to sell off here soon before
further movement in the other is likely. Which will it be today…?
After the strong performances of the past week lets be sure we aren’t pigs and take some profit along the way.
DIA – once upon a time the Dow 30 had been king, until the rally really got into gear and Nasdaq started to outperform after months of lagging. Is the Dow flashing a warning here, or is this the last stop before a major break out?
Long Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
ATML – semis – take long-side only if Nasdaq and SOX/SMH act well.
C – diversified financials
YHOO – 3 inside up setup -one has to wonder why YHOO is acting weak while so many other stocks have been pushing up for past two weeks.
QCOM – similar comment as per YHOO. If these are to go up, they reallly need a good strong market on day-of-entry. Caution.
T:C – telecommunications, carrier – second largest telephone co in Canada.
Test of Top – Continuation
Short Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, place a sell alert at or just below the low of the setup bar, and look for the first failed intraday bounce after the low has been broken. What we are looking for is price to push down, bounce a little, and fail again – this is where we want to get short.
Retracement or Pause in Down Swing / Down Trend
AMGN – biotech – follow up from yesterday
AMAT – semiconductor – trendline break and bounce; a good spot to lurk and deploy a short if indeed markets do weaken.
MXIM – semiconductor
STT – investment industry
NT – telecom equip – whether we short or not, caution on long side…
TWX – media
Test of Bottom – Continuation
AVP – has graced these pages twice recently as a short, perhaps another leg down here yet.
Special Situations
COCO – education – short – rise to resistance and clear indecision. Can also be traded long but there are better candidates to trade long than this.
Good morning, today is Friday June 17th, the 168th day of 2005, and is quadruple witching day.
Before markets open, stock index futures are trading somewhat higher with the Nasdaq 100 futures leading the way up just over half of one percent. Crude is up a solid one and a quarter percent as well – one of these, crude or stocks, is going to have to give today if history proves out. Beware of gap up opens and sell offs…
The current account deficit came in five billion more than anticipated, stretching out to reach a new record high. The US dollar softened further following the news, nudging gold up a little more. The scenario we’ve been discussing in TrendVue Trader Talk over the past week is certainly playing out.
“Unilateral transfers is one of the things that stood out, which is folks sending money back to other countries, to relatives and some of it also is investments. Private remittances rose, but the biggest increase is in government grants, which is probably for the tsunami,” said Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wachovia Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina.
At some point, expectations of further interest rate hikes ought to help firm up the dollar at least until new inflation or growth oriented news next upsets conventional wisdom.
US Market Calendar
- 8:30 am: Current Account – Q11
- 9:45 am: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – June
Canadian Market Calendar
- 8:30 am: Wholesale Trade – April
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
1 US current account gap more than expected
Today's transcript.
Click on the title above to expand this document.