Monday, June 20, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 09:05 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Monday June 20 |
| 11:10 | Crude Realities Heads Up |
| 12:14 | On any other day... |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
| 20:45 | Swing Scanner Results Monday June 20 closing data |
| 20:46 | Market Statistics For Monday June 20, 2005 |
Featured setups from Friday June 17, 2005 closing data symbol scan
Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups
Notes for the Day
- Safety, caution, are the bywords for today. Will oil hold these lofty levels, or could it head higher? Possible. While the energy market looks awfully frothy, these parabolic moves can sometimes carry on much farther than anyone expects. Keep following price up with profit stops on at least part positions!
- On the flip side continually rising oil is bad bad bad for most other sectors. I’l adding some short exposure if oil doesn’t die after the 10am open, but again caution here is the key as any obvious and substantial reversal in oil will send this market higher, much higher.
DIA long and short here off Friday’s inside bar
QQQQ the short side is easy; no simple long entry off the daily, therefore if markets turn back up, entry will have to be off intraday patterns.
Long Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
TSN – foods
NE – energy – rises like this don’t go on forever but sometimes do go on longer than anyone expects. Clearly it was easier and less risky getting into energy now rather than back in mid-May when we first did, or at any of the points prior to 52 week high breakouts.
XLE – energy ETF
NCX – chemicals (also NCX:C)
Test of Top – Continuation
JCP – retail – easy to picture the long scenario here; short we can look for intraday entries either at Friday’s low; or, keep an eye on this for today and 1 – 2 more days and stalk any setup that looks to set price breaking where support ought to hold (but may not) at base of tall up bar (red arrow).
Short Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, place a sell alert at or just below the low of the setup bar, and look for the first failed intraday bounce after the low has been broken. What we are looking for is price to push down, bounce a little, and fail again – this is where we want to get short.
Test of Top – Reversal
Retracement or Pause in Down Swing / Down Trend
MERQ – may have another big leg down in it. Hold only if strongly profitable
QCOM – there is a sense in QCOM that it could go higher in the right market, therefore be quick to take profits on this one.
MXIM – semis
AVP – cosmetics, can Avon deliver again for us? Continues to act very weak.
RIMM – ultimately this one appears to want to go higher, but there may be a decent short here off news. I hold RIMM long off intraday entry at range low and will not be participating in this one.
All tops start somewhere. This is as good a place as any for sellers to creep in:
CLQ5 – August contract; of course today is not done and much can happen, but tests of tops have to be taken seriously.
CLQ5 – intraday – 59.30 or thereabouts is where resistance may be setting up here.
Don’t be afraid to take profits in energy-related trades – a favorite technique of mine is to trail profits on a big time frame intraday chart (such as the 78M chart) on 1/4 to 1/2 size chunks of a position. We can always buy again.
The quick rise over the past few days has been largely attributed to news – Nigeria, Norway – and in part to demand, but the unspoken and very real co-contributor to the recent price rise is the rolling over of commodity contracts.
Today is the last day of trade for the “N” or July contract; speculators and commercial interests who want to hold CL long have had to roll over (sell N, buy Q) contracts over the past week. Today’s the end of this.
When these natural buyers evaporate, we can expect some price weakness in CL, if even for a day.
Are we calling a top? No. Are we saying that this is a place where price weakness can come in? Certainly.
I will be stalking any significant retracement in energy names for new trading positions and to reload my core positions where I’ve been taking some off the table over the last few sessions.
If not for crude oil threatening to make 59.30 new support, by now the Nasdaq (and other broad markets) no doubt would be soaring. That price has shown some resiliency in the face of record oil prices is a very positive indicator, but following price as closely as we do around here, its easy to get the sense that buyers are expecting a gift from crude (a sell off) that may not be delivered.
NQ Nasdaq 100 index futures
IF crude can’t start trending lower then 59.30, we’ll therefore expect this rising wedge in the intraday time frames may yet trigger and resolve as normal, driving price right back to the mornings lows.
Since we managed to nab the very lows of the day in NQ I’m in no hurry to exit the trade, preferring to protect the entry position than profits while chop in stock markets and energy markets alike plays out.
Today's transcript.
Click on the title above to expand this document.
Monday June 20 closing data
Click on the title above to expand this document.
Statistics for Monday June 20, 2005
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 430 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 314 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 1.36 : 1 |
| Advancers | 37% |
| Decliners | 60% |
| Unchanged | 2% |
| Up Bars | 24% |
| Down Bars | 51% |
| Inside Bars | 13% |
| Outside Bars | 6% |
| Close > 20EMA | 37% |
| Close > 50SMA | 81% |
| Close > 200SMA | 63% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 46% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 12% |