Friday, June 3, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 02:00 | Swing Scanner Results Thursday June 2 closing data |
| 02:01 | Market Statistics For Thursday June 2, 2005 |
| 09:05 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Friday June 3 |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
Thursday June 2 closing data
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Statistics for Thursday June 2, 2005
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 521 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 226 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 2.30 : 1 |
| Advancers | 60% |
| Decliners | 38% |
| Unchanged | 2% |
| Up Bars | 43% |
| Down Bars | 19% |
| Inside Bars | 27% |
| Outside Bars | 4% |
| Close > 20EMA | 60% |
| Close > 50SMA | 76% |
| Close > 200SMA | 62% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 41% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 16% |
Featured setups from Thursday June 2, 2005 closing data symbol scan
Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups | Special Situations
Notes for the Day
- if you hold stocks with recent gap-up moves they need to continue to be carefully monitored; such moves more often than not precede a swing turn within a few days; the exception is when a stock acts so strong it keeps flying higher following a gap up, but there is no doubt you’ll mistake such a stock for one that is pausing following a gap up.
- Futures off marginally before the open following the employment data – the data itself should signal that the economic soft-patch may still be an issue which paradoxically may get traders rev’d up for today on the expectation that future rate increases are nearing the end. If it had not been for the rally earlier this week on the same premise, thanks to comments from the Dallas Fed president, today’s news would probably deliver a rally. Fickle that investors are, we’ve already seen the rally which means profit taking may yet be the order of today.
- I’ve included a number of oil and oil service names because we can’t let up focus on the sector despite the big run up. Surprising things happen at times. Just the same I am and have been taking profits in my trading positions in the sector.
Long Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
ENERGY
TLM:C (TLM:NYSE)
ECA
BR, single down bar in a still intact upswing
PCA:C (PCZ:NYSE), see weekly chart for my interest in this one:
PCA:C – weekly
CMT:C – smaller cap Canadian energy name. Generally I trade the big names but may stalk a position here.
ENERGY – SERVICES
For a list of potential targets consult the OSX Oil Service Sector Index components list. PDS and RIG are my favorites in the sector for strength lately.
BJS
NOV
HAL
PDS (PD:TSX) – test of top underway
OTHER
DE – farm equip, not a very exciting chart here. Using the same approach and rationale given in the CD example below, (special situations) this is one I would have been keen to take profits on over the past few days.
Test of Top – Continuation
RIMM – tech
Short Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, place a sell alert at or just below the low of the setup bar, and look for the first failed intraday bounce after the low has been broken. What we are looking for is price to push down, bounce a little, and fail again – this is where we want to get short.
Test of Top – Reversal
CNQ:C (CNQ:NYSE) – to prove that I am not an energy bull-only, lets not forget that tests of tops can be traded in both directions. I personally will not be shorting the sector, but I do use such charts to determine when its time to take money off the table or get very defensive.
Retracement or Pause in Down Swing / Down Trend
VIA.B – one of the weakest charts around lately
ADP – Folllowing up on yesterday’s chart, I elected not to take the long side of the trade and am stalking for a short.
TEVA following up from yesterday, will follow up one more day if ont triggered.
FITB – banking
Special Situations
CD – Cendant – heads up to take profits, aggressive traders may wish to consider a short.
CD – speculative short nder this up bar for a break of the rising trendline. This sort of trade really works only if the broad market also breaks down. I’ve included this chart not so much as an indictment against CD but as a heads up for how a great many other stocks (just look at chart after chart and you’ll see similar configurations to CD) may fail here, at least initially.
CD – Weekly, risen to overhead resistance @ 50EMA
While I’m not expecting a big market crash or retrun to April lows, we can’t rule that out. Many stocks have rallied 10 – 20% over the past few weeks, and its time to be sure you are capitalizing on profits.
Today's transcript.
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