Monday, June 6, 2005
Issue Contents:
| 08:56 | Swing Trade Setups Featured charts for Monday June 6 |
| 10:26 | The Day Ahead Economic releases and news |
| 16:15 | TrendVue Trader Talk Today's transcript. |
| 20:34 | Swing Scanner Results Monday June 6 closing data |
| 20:36 | Market Statistics For Monday June 6, 2005 |
Featured setups from Friday June 3, 2005 closing data symbol scan
Jump to: Long Setups | Short Setups
Notes for the Day
- Oil up, Nat Gas up more than 3% before the open. Lets keep following price up with at least partial profit stops. A couple of laggards in the sector have been added to today’s list, but we have to be thinking that the sector must be nearing time for a pause, unless indeed this is the time for energy to break up and out of the 3 month consolidation its been in and head higher to a new range. May very well be.
- I’ve listed some low volume picks in the soft drink sector, along side KO. Caution.
- USD on day three of pull back, gold has moved higher as well – careful with new entries here, USD is still drawing a bull flag which implies it will at least try a one day up move within the next few days.
Long Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, buy stop just above the “high” value, with an initial protective stop at the low value of the bar, not below the bar.
Test of Bottom – Reversal
COT – Cott, note low volume on both US and Canadian markets.
BCB:C – Cott is a large private label producer of soft drinks. Piercing line candle at a test of bottom.
Retracement or Pause in Up Swing / Up Trend
KO – soft drinks – pull back to 20EMA – time to try a long here.
TSN – foods – if triggered we need to see price clear the 4 day high and close strongly to hold.
GIS – foods – in a softening economic environment this sector gets some support
APC – energy, lagging the pack somewhat.
AET.U (AET.UN on TSX) – energy income trust, has been lagging, caution. I usually only buy income trusts following a very big market pull back and buy the regular energy equities at other times. Listed only in case this break out in energy higher is sector wide.
ELD:C (EGO:AMEX) – lagging gold
CBJ:C (CBJ:AMEX) – lagging gold
ABX – (ABX:NYSE) leading gold
PDG (PDG:NYSE) – middle of pack gold, had been sold off substantially more than peers in larger cap gold
Short Setups
General common strategy: Unless noted otherwise, place a sell alert at or just below the low of the setup bar, and look for the first failed intraday bounce after the low has been broken. What we are looking for is price to push down, bounce a little, and fail again – this is where we want to get short.
Test of Top – Reversal
GLW – tech, optical – has been strong for some time and may just continue; aggressive traders will also want to stalk a short here today.
Retracement or Pause in Down Swing / Down Trend
JPM – financials – now that the recent range has been cleared on both sides over the past three days, we can see if directionality emerges.
UNTD – internet prescriptions – news driven biz, caution
XLNX – tech, may be stalled at overhead resistance. Dark cloud cover . Only aggressive traders in this one…
MXIM – tech, semis, similar comment as XLNX, slightly different chart. Note that price often grinds away between 20 and 50 EMA for a period of time before heading higher so if we are filled short we look to take quick gains out for a day or two and exit if it stalls at all. Occasionally we are rewarded wiht a complete reversal and a retest of the prior major low.
Good morning, its Monday June 6th, the 157th day of 2005.
With next to no economic news of note today, and very little on deck tomorrow, traders will have oil (up), natural gas (up big), the USD (down), gold (up some), copper (off slightly but near new highs), and company warnings as they start to roll in for the next quarter (ATYT).
Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan speaks (9 pm ET) via satellite this evening to the International Monetary Conference, being held in Beijing. Traders will be keen to see the prepared remarks. On Thursday we’ll get another dose of Mr. Greenspan as he testifies
In Canada this morning the Ivey Purchasing Manager’s Index1, continues to show increases in purchasing activity and employment over last month and year over year; decreases in inventories over last month.
Site news: I’d hoped to flip on our new application over the weekend but one of our servers experienced an outage due to a hardware failure so the planned update will be moved out to next weekend.
US Market Calendar
- 5 & 10-year note auction announcement
3 & 6-month T-bill auction
Canadian Market Calendar
8:30 am: Building Permits – Apr.
10:00 am: Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index – May1
Earnings and the Federal Reserve
For earnings highlights, please see today's WSJ Earnings Calendar.
For a list of upcoming speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases, please visit the What's Next page of The Federal Reserve Board website. Recently released Federal Reserve Board material, including market moving FOMC decisions and speeches by members, will be found on their What's New page.
1 Ivey Purchasing Managers Index
Today's transcript.
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Monday June 6 closing data
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Statistics for Monday June 6, 2005
Note: Statistics are compiled based on our custom symbol universe of the most heavily traded stocks.
| Symbols in Up Swings | 345 |
|---|---|
| Symbols in Down Swings | 401 |
| Up/Down Swing Ratio | 0.86 : 1 |
| Advancers | 51% |
| Decliners | 46% |
| Unchanged | 2% |
| Up Bars | 22% |
| Down Bars | 48% |
| Inside Bars | 17% |
| Outside Bars | 8% |
| Close > 20EMA | 51% |
| Close > 50SMA | 73% |
| Close > 200SMA | 60% |
| 20EMA > 50SMA > 200SMA (trend up) | 41% |
| 20EMA < 50SMA < 200SMA (trend down) | 17% |